The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers began reducing the Gavins Point releases to the winter release rate on November 23 with the navigation flow support season ending on December 1 at St. Louis, MO.  “Releases from Gavins Point Dam were reduced from 35,000 cubic feet per second to 13,000 cfs by mid-December,” said John Remus, chief of the USACE, Missouri River Water Management Division. “We will closely monitor river conditions, and releases will be adjusted to the extent practical to lessen the impacts of river ice formation on stages in the lower river.” 

As the colder, winter temperatures enter the basin, USACE will closely monitor Missouri River ice conditions between the System reservoirs and downstream of Gavins Point Dam for potential ice jams that could impact river stages and water intakes.

Runoff in the upper Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, was 1.1 million acre-feet (MAF) during November, 107% of average. The 2023 calendar year runoff forecast is 29.9 MAF, 116% of average. Average annual runoff is 25.7 MAF.

The total volume of water stored in the Missouri River mainstem reservoirs is currently 52.5 million acre-feet, which is 3.6 MAF below the base of the System flood control storage zone. System storage is forecast to begin the 2024 runoff season at 52.9 MAF, which is 3.2 MAF below the base of the system flood control zone.  

Releases from Fort Peck Dam are scheduled to remain at 5,000 cfs in December and are forecasted to be increased to 7,000 cfs in January and February. Releases from Garrison Dam are forecasted to remain at 16,000 cfs until the formation of a stable river ice cover at Bismarck, North Dakota.  Releases will be gradually increased to 24,000 cfs, downstream conditions permitting. Releases from Garrison are typically set near 16,000 cfs prior to the river freeze-in to reduce the risk of ice-induced flooding in the Bismarck area. Releases at Fort Peck and Garrison dams are being adjusted as part of balancing storage in the upper reservoirs.

Mountain and Plains Snowpack

Mountain snowpack in the upper Missouri River Basin is accumulating at below average levels. About 25% of the mountain snowpack typically accumulates by December 1, and normally peaks in mid-April. The mountain snowpack graphics can be viewed here: http://go.usa.gov/xE6wT. Currently, plains snowpack in the upper Missouri River Basin is sparse.

2023-2024 Annual Operating Plan

The comment period for the 2023-2024 Annual Operating Plan ended in November. The final AOP is scheduled for publication by the end of 2023 and will be posted on the Water Management website: https://www.nwd.usace.army.mil/MRWM/Public-Meetings/

Reservoir Forecasts

• Gavins Point Dam
  • Average releases past month – 30,900 cfs
  • Current release rate – 14,000 cfs
  • Forecast release rate – 13,000 cfs
  • End-of-November reservoir level – 1208.1 feet
  • Forecast end-of-December reservoir level – 1207.5 feet
  • Notes: Releases were reduced to 14,000 cfs on December 1. The winter release rate will be 13,000 cfs based on the September 1 System storage check and may be adjusted to lessen the impacts of winter ice formation.
     
• Fort Randall Dam
  • Average releases past month – 27,700 cfs
  • End-of-November reservoir level – 1338.4 feet (down 8.3 feet from October)
  • Forecast end-of-December reservoir level – 1339.0 feet
  • Notes: Releases will be adjusted as necessary to maintain the desired reservoir elevation at Gavins Point. The reservoir is normally drawn down to 1337.5 feet in the fall to provide space for winter hydropower generation at Oahe and Big Bend.  The reservoir will refill to the base of the flood control pool from December to February.
     
• Big Bend Dam
  • Average releases past month – 21,000 cfs
  • Forecast average release rate – 11,800 cfs
  • Forecast reservoir level – 1421.0 feet
     
• Oahe Dam
  • Average releases past month – 20,700 cfs
  • Forecast average release rate – 12,200 cfs
  • End-of-November reservoir level – 1598.2 feet (falling 0.8 feet during November)
  • Forecast end-of-December reservoir level – 1599.3 feet
     
• Garrison Dam
  • Average releases past month – 17,100 cfs
  • Current release rate – 17,000 cfs
  • Forecast average release rate – 18,700 cfs
  • End-of-November reservoir level – 1839.8 feet (falling 0.4 feet during November)
  • Forecast end-of-December reservoir level – 1838.4 feet
  • Notes – Releases will be set near 16,000 cfs prior to the river freeze-in at Bismarck, North Dakota. Once an ice cover is established, releases will be gradually increased to 24,000 cfs.
     
• Fort Peck Dam
  • Average releases past month – 4,600 cfs
  • Current release rate – 5,000 cfs
  • Forecast average release rate – 5,000 cfs
  • End-of-November reservoir level – 2229.3 feet (rising 0.4 feet during November)
  • Forecast end-of-December reservoir level – 2229.3 feet
  • Notes: Releases will remain at 5,000 cfs in December. Releases will be increased to 7,000 cfs in January.

The forecast reservoir releases and elevations discussed above are not definitive. Additional precipitation, lack of precipitation or other circumstances could cause adjustments to the reservoir release rates.

Hydropower

The six mainstem power plants generated 665 million kWh of electricity in November. Typical energy generation for November is 742 million kWh. The power plants are projected to generate 7.9 billion kWh of electricity this year, compared to the long-term average of 9.4 billion kWh.

To view the detailed three-week release forecast for the mainstem dams, go to http://go.usa.gov/xVgWr.