News Releases

Drought conditions worsen in upper Missouri River Basin

Missouri River Water Management Division
Published Oct. 7, 2022
Updated: Oct. 21, 2022
Graphich showing the Missouri River basin and the location of the six U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams on the main stem of the Missouri River.

Each month, from January through the end of the runoff season, Missouri River water managers and weather forecasters report the conditions of the Missouri River Basin.

MISSOURI RIVER MAINSTEM RESERVOIR DATA
 	Pool Elevation
(feet above mean sea level) 	Water in Storage
(1,000 acre-feet)
 	On September 30	Change in September	On September 30	% of 1967-2020 Average	Change in September
Fort Peck	2219.7	-1.4	12,007	83	-242
Garrison	1834.0	-1.6	16,699	94	-476
Oahe	1593.0	-3.0	14,598	82	-773
Big Bend	1420.1	-0.6	1,646	97	-27
Fort Randall	1353.4	-1.5	3,271	98	-130
Gavins Point	1207.5	+0.7	363	93	+17
 	 	Total	48,584	88	-1,631


WATER RELEASES AND ENERGY GENERATION FOR SEPTEMBER
 	Average Release in 1,000 cfs	Releases in 1,000 acre-feet	Generation in Million kWh
Fort Peck	7.7	460	71
Garrison	17.8	1,058	159
Oahe	29.1	1,731	244
Big Bend	28.9	1,719	95
Fort Randall	29.9	1,778	183
Gavins Point	31.0	1,847	80
 		Total	832

MISSOURI RIVER MAINSTEM RESERVOIR DATA Pool Elevation (feet above mean sea level) Water in Storage (1,000 acre-feet) On September 30 Change in September On September 30 % of 1967-2020 Average Change in September Fort Peck 2219.7 -1.4 12,007 83 -242 Garrison 1834.0 -1.6 16,699 94 -476 Oahe 1593.0 -3.0 14,598 82 -773 Big Bend 1420.1 -0.6 1,646 97 -27 Fort Randall 1353.4 -1.5 3,271 98 -130 Gavins Point 1207.5 +0.7 363 93 +17 Total 48,584 88 -1,631 WATER RELEASES AND ENERGY GENERATION FOR SEPTEMBER Average Release in 1,000 cfs Releases in 1,000 acre-feet Generation in Million kWh Fort Peck 7.7 460 71 Garrison 17.8 1,058 159 Oahe 29.1 1,731 244 Big Bend 28.9 1,719 95 Fort Randall 29.9 1,778 183 Gavins Point 31.0 1,847 80 Total 832

Please note the time for the Fort Peck fall public meeting has changed. Due to scheduling conflicts, the St. Louis meeting has been canceled. 

September precipitation was once again below average in the Missouri River Basin. September runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa was 0.6 million acre-feet, 47% of the long-term average. Soil conditions in the upper Missouri River Basin continue to be very dry. According to the Drought Mitigation Center, over 90% of the Missouri River basin is currently experiencing some form of abnormally dry conditions or drought, which is almost a 20% increase from the end of August.

“Runoff in the upper Missouri River Basin was below average during the month of September and is expected to remain low throughout the rest of 2022,” said John Remus, chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Missouri River Basin Water Management Division. 

“Releases from Gavins Point Dam will continue to be set to maintain a service level 500 cubic feet-per-second above the minimum service level,” Remus added.

The 2022 calendar year runoff forecast for the upper Basin, updated on Oct. 1, is 19.5 MAF, 76% of average and 0.7 MAF lower than last month’s annual runoff forecast. Average annual runoff for the upper Basin is 25.7 MAF.

Total System storage as of Oct. 5 was 48.5 MAF, which is 7.6 MAF the base of the flood control zone.  Due to the extremely dry conditions in the upper Missouri River Basin, the System is expected to lose an additional 2.0 MAF before the 2023 runoff season begins in March of 2023.

Navigation

Gavins Point Dam releases will be set to provide navigation flow support at a level 500 cfs above minimum service at all four target locations (Sioux City, Omaha, Nebraska City, and Kansas City). Season support will end on Nov. 28 at the mouth of the Missouri River

Winter Release Rate

As per the criteria in the Maser Manual, the winter release rate is determined based on the Sept. 1 System storage. Per the Sept. 1 System storage, winter releases from Gavins Point Dam will be at the minimum rate of 12,000 cfs. In anticipation of the low winter releases, a letter was sent in early July to all water users below Gavins Point Dam making them aware of the planned releases, and encouraging them to assess the risk to their facilities. The volume of water in the Missouri River downstream of the System will be adequate for water supply needs.  However, the USACE cannot guarantee access to the water.  Access to the water is the responsibility of the individual intake owner/operators.

Draft Annual Operating Plan

In mid-September, the USACE posted the draft 2022-2023 Annual Operating Plan on its website at: https://www.nwd.usace.army.mil/MRWM/Public-Meetings/. The comment period on the draft AOP will close Nov. 23. 

Fall Public Meetings

Fall public meetings will be held the week of Oct. 24-28. Specific dates, times and locations are listed below and can be found on the website at https://www.nwd.usace.army.mil/MRWM/Public-Meetings/.

Monday, October 24 – Fort Peck, Montana

  • Start time: 11:00 a.m. (MDT)
  • Fort Peck Interpretative Center
  • Lower Yellowstone Rd.

Monday, October 24 – Bismarck, North Dakota

  • Start time: 5 p.m. (CDT)
  • Bismarck State College, National Energy Center of Excellence (NECE), Bldg. 15, Bavendick Stateroom
  • 1200 Schafer Street

Tuesday, October 25 – Fort Pierre, South Dakota

  • Start time: 10 a.m. (CDT)
  • Casey Tibbs Conference Center
  • 210 Verendrye Drive

Tuesday, October 25 – Sioux City, Iowa

  • Start time: 4 p.m. (CDT)
  • Lewis & Clark Interpretive Center, Betty Strong Encounter Center
  • 900 Larsen Park Rd.

Wednesday, October 26 – Smithville, Missouri

  • Start time: 11 a.m. (CDT)
  • Jerry Litton Visitor Center, Smithville Dam
  • 16311 DD Hwy.

Wednesday, October 26 – Nebraska City, Nebraska

  • Start time: 5 p.m. (CDT)
  • Steinhart Lodge
  • 1888 Steinhart Park Rd

Thursday, October 27 – St. Louis, Missouri

Due to scheduling conflicts, this meeting has been canceled. We will provide a recording of our meeting presentations. Attendees may contact us with questions or queries. 
If necessary, a virtual meeting may be scheduled at a later date. 

  • Start time: 10:30 a.m. (CDT)
  • VUE 17
  • 1034 S. Brentwood Blvd, #1700

Reservoir Forecasts:

  • Gavins Point Dam
    • Average releases past month – 31,000 cfs
    • Current release rate – 32,000 cfs (as of October 4)
    • Forecast release rate – 32,300 cfs (month of October)
    • End-of-September reservoir level – 1207.5 feet
    • Forecast end-of-October reservoir level – 1207.5 feet
    • Notes: Releases will be adjusted as necessary to meet all downstream navigation targets.
       
  • Fort Randall Dam
    • Average releases past month – 29,900 cfs
    • End-of-September reservoir level – 1353.4 feet
    • Forecast end-of-October reservoir level – 1344.1 feet
    • Notes: Releases will be adjusted as necessary to maintain the desired reservoir elevation at Gavins Point. The Fort Randall pool is normally drawn down to 1337.5 feet in the fall to provide space for winter hydropower generation at Oahe and Big Bend. The annual drawdown will continue in October and November.
       
  • Big Bend Dam
    • Average releases past month – 28,900 cfs
    • Forecast average release rate – 19,500 cfs
    • Forecast reservoir level – 1420.8 feet
       
  • Oahe Dam
    • Average releases past month – 29,100 cfs
    • Forecast average release rate – 20,300 cfs
    • End-of-September reservoir level – 1593.0 feet
    • Forecast end-of-October reservoir level – 1591.3 feet
       
  • Garrison Dam
    • Average releases past month – 17,800 cfs
    • Current release rate – 14,000 cfs
    • Forecast average release rate – 14,000 cfs
    • End-of-September reservoir level – 1834.0 feet
    • Forecast end-of-October reservoir level – 1833.1 feet
       
  • Fort Peck Dam
    • Average releases past month – 7,700 cfs
    • Current release rate – 4,000 cfs
    • Forecast average release rate – 4,100 cfs
    • End-of-September reservoir level – 2219.7 feet
    • Forecast end-of-October reservoir level – 2219.5 feet

The forecast reservoir releases and elevations discussed above are not definitive. Additional precipitation, lack of precipitation or other circumstances could cause adjustments to the reservoir release rates.

Hydropower:

The six mainstem power plants generated 832 million kWh of electricity in September. Typical energy generation for September is 902 million kWh. The power plants are projected to generate 7.4 billion kWh of electricity this year, compared to the long-term average of 9.4 billion kWh.

To view the detailed three-week release forecast for the mainstem dams, go to http://go.usa.gov/xVgWr.

 


Contact
Eileen Williamson
402-996-3802
eileen.l.williamson@usace.army.mil

Release no. 22-047