The updated 2022 calendar year runoff forecast for the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, continues to be below average. 

“Despite January’s runoff being slightly above average, we expect 2022 runoff to remain below average,” said John Remus, chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’, Missouri River Basin Water Management Division.

“Both plains snowpack and mountain snowpack continue to lag behind seasonal averages, and soil moisture continues to be much drier-than-normal.”

January runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City was 0.9 million acre-feet, 111% of average. Runoff was near-average due to warmer-than-normal temperatures in the upper Basin. Precipitation in January was below normal for most of the upper basin except for central North Dakota, which saw above-normal precipitation. 

The 2022 calendar year runoff forecast above Sioux City is 21.7 MAF, 84% of average remaining unchanged from January’s forecast. The runoff forecast is based on current soil moisture conditions, plains snowpack, mountain snowpack, and long-term precipitation and temperature outlooks.

Gavins Point Dam releases will be maintained at the winter release rate of 12,000 cubic feet per second but will be adjusted if needed in response to ice formation on the Missouri River below Gavins Point .

Weather and river conditions will continue to be monitored throughout the winter months and adjustments will be made to System releases to help mitigate effects from the weather.

“The Corps is aware of the importance of our operations to water supply. There is and will be enough water in the river to serve the water supply needs. Access to the water is the facility owner/operator’s responsibility. The System has enough water to serve all Congressionally authorized purposes including flood control, navigation, and water supply during 2022,” Remus added. 

Basin and river conditions continue to be monitored, including plains and mountain snow accumulation, and System regulation will be adjusted based on the most up-to-date information. The river ice report is available at: http://go.usa.gov/xARQc.

The 2018 Biological Opinion for operation on the Missouri River Mainstem Reservoir System (System) called for a flow test from Fort Peck Dam to determine if there were System operation changes that could benefit the endangered Pallid Sturgeon. In 2021, the USACE published a Record of Decision outlining the parameters of the flow test. One criteria to run the test is sufficient water in the Fort Peck reservoir. Based on current and projected conditions, it is very unlikely that the Fort Peck reservoir will have the required water to run the test in 2022.

“Even if Mother Nature were to provide the necessary runoff in the next 4-6 weeks, there simply is not enough time to properly coordinate and communicate with our partners and stakeholders,” said Remus.

“Therefore, there will not be a flow test from Fort Peck in 2022.” USACE remains committed to compliance with the 2018 Biological Opinion, including the Fort Peck flow test, but only when hydrologic criteria are met, as explained in the Record of Decision for the flows.

Navigation:

Navigation flow support for the Missouri River is forecast to be at minimum levels for the first half of the 2022 season, which begins April 1 at the mouth of the river near St. Louis, Missouri. The actual service level will be based on the total volume of water stored within the System on March 15, in accordance with the guidelines in the Master Manual. Flow support for the second half of the navigation season, as well as navigation season length, will be based on the storage in the system on July 1.

Mountain and Plains Snowpack:

Mountain snowpack in the upper Missouri River Basin is accumulating at below-average rates. The Jan. 31 mountain snowpack in the Fort Peck reach was 87% of average, while the mountain snowpack in the Fort Peck to Garrison reach was 86% of average. By February 1, about 60% of the total mountain snowpack has typically accumulated. Mountain snowpack normally peaks near April 15. The mountain snowpack graphics can be viewed at: http://go.usa.gov/xARQC. Currently, plains snowpack in the upper Basin is very light.

Monthly Water Management Conference Calls for 2022:

The February 2022 monthly conference call will be held on Thursday, Feb. 3, to inform basin stakeholders of current weather and runoff forecasts and the planned operation of the reservoir system in the coming months. Presentation materials will be available via webinar. The call is intended for Congressional delegations; Tribes; state, county and local government officials; and the media. It will be recorded in its entirety and made available to the public on the Defense Video and Imagery Distribution System at https://go.usa.gov/xARQv.

Reservoir Forecasts:

• Gavins Point Dam
  • Average releases past month – 12,700 cfs
  • Current release rate – 12,000 cfs
  • Forecast release rate – 12,500 cfs
  • End-of-January reservoir level – 1207.5 feet
  • Forecast end-of-February reservoir level – 1206.0 feet
  • Notes: The winter release rate will be at least 12,000 cfs and may be adjusted to lessen the impacts of winter ice formation.
     
• Fort Randall Dam
  • Average releases past month – 10,600 cfs
  • End-of-January reservoir level – 1345.6 feet (up 6.2 feet from December)
  • Forecast end-of-February reservoir level – 1349.5 feet
  • Notes: Releases will be adjusted as necessary to maintain the desired reservoir elevation at Gavins Point. The reservoir was drawn down to 1337.5 feet near the end of November 2021 to provide space for winter hydropower generation at Oahe and Big Bend. The reservoir will refill to the base of the flood control pool by the end of February.
     
• Big Bend Dam
  • Average releases past month – 15,500 cfs
  • Forecast average release rate – 12,300 cfs
  • Forecast reservoir level – 1420.9 feet
     
• Oahe Dam
  • Average releases past month – 16,000 cfs
  • Forecast average release rate – 12,200 cfs
  • End-of-January reservoir level – 1596.9 feet (down 10.1 foot from December)
  • Forecast end-of-February reservoir level – 1597.9 feet
     
• Garrison Dam
  • Average releases past month – 16,100 cfs
  • Current release rate – 16,000 cfs
  • Forecast average release rate – 15,300 cfs
  • End-of-January reservoir level – 1827.8 feet
  • Forecast end-of-February reservoir level – 1828.0 feet
  • Notes – Releases were set at 16,000 cfs in anticipation of the river freeze-in at Bismarck, North Dakota and will be reduced to 14,500 cfs in mid-February if downstream conditions allow.
     
• Fort Peck Dam
  • Average releases past month – 9,200 cfs
  • Current release rate – 9,500 cfs
  • Forecast average release rate – 9,500 cfs
  • End-of-January reservoir level – 2223.7 feet
  • Forecast end-of-February reservoir level – 2222.5 feet
  • Notes: Releases will remain at 9,500 cfs in February.

The forecast reservoir releases and elevations discussed above are not definitive. Additional precipitation, lack of precipitation or other circumstances could cause adjustments to the reservoir release rates.

Hydropower:

The six mainstem power plants generated 618 million kWh of electricity in January. Typical energy generation for January is 715 million kWh.  The power plants are expected to generate 9.2 billion kWh this year, compared to the long-term average of 9.4 billion kWh.

To view the detailed three-week release forecast for the mainstem dams, go to https://go.usa.gov/xARQB.

The Missouri Basin Web App provides links to these reports and others that are updated more frequently. http://go.usa.gov/xE6fC.