News Releases

2020 runoff forecast remains above average; Public meetings set for April 6-9 and April 14

Published March 5, 2020
System storage is 56.4 MAF; 16.0 MAF of flood control storage is available. All 2019 floodwaters were evacuated; System storage reached 56.0 MAF on January 22. We expect to see an increase in System storage this week from plains snowmelt in the upper Basin.
Mountain snowpack is slightly above average (lower right quadrant).
The 2020 calendar year forecast for the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, updated on March 2, is 36.9 MAF (143% of average).
The Gavins Point release is currently 38,000 cfs, more than twice average for this time of year. Releases will be reduced to 35,000 cfs today (Tuesday) at 6:00 pm due to increased flows coming in from tributaries downstream of Gavins Point.

System storage is 56.4 MAF; 16.0 MAF of flood control storage is available. All 2019 floodwaters were evacuated; System storage reached 56.0 MAF on January 22. We expect to see an increase in System storage this week from plains snowmelt in the upper Basin. Mountain snowpack is slightly above average (lower right quadrant). The 2020 calendar year forecast for the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, updated on March 2, is 36.9 MAF (143% of average). The Gavins Point release is currently 38,000 cfs, more than twice average for this time of year. Releases will be reduced to 35,000 cfs today (Tuesday) at 6:00 pm due to increased flows coming in from tributaries downstream of Gavins Point.

Gavins Point releases were decreased from 38,000 cubic feet per second to 35,000 cfs this week as tributaries downstream of Gavins Point began to rise due to the melting of the plains snowpack in South Dakota.

The potential for above average runoff in the upper basin, coupled with continued high river stages on many of the uncontrolled tributaries downstream of the reservoir system, increases the potential for flooding, particularly in the lower river.

“Because additional adjustments to Gavins Point releases may be necessary, I encourage all interested parties to check the Missouri River Basin Water Management and the National Weather Service websites daily for the most up-to-date information on system conditions and forecast river stages,” said John Remus, chief of the Corps’ Missouri River Basin Water Management Division.

Current conditions, including soil moisture, plains and mountain snowpack, as well as long-term temperature and precipitation outlooks forecast runoff to be 36.9 million acre-feet, 143% of average, for the upper Missouri River basin above Sioux City, Iowa for 2020, Average annual runoff for the upper basin is 25.8 MAF. The runoff forecast is updated monthly, and more often if basin conditions warrant.

As of March 3, the total volume of water stored in the System is 56.4 MAF, occupying 0.3 MAF of the 16.3 MAF combined flood control storage zones. System storage reached 56.0 MAF on Jan. 22, 0.1 MAF below the base of the combined flood control zone.

Navigation:

Current studies indicate that flow support for Missouri River navigation will be above full service levels for the first half of the 2020 season, which begins on April 1 at the mouth. Full-service flow support is generally sufficient to provide a 9-foot-deep by 300-foot-wide channel. The actual service level will be based on the total volume of water stored in the System on March 15, in accordance with the guidelines in the Master Manual. Flow support for the second half of the navigation season, as well as navigation season length, will be based on the actual July 1 System storage. Full-service navigation flow support is expected at the dates and locations shown below.

  • Sioux City, Iowa: March 23
  • Omaha, Nebraska: March 25
  • Nebraska City, Nebraska: March 26
  • Kansas CIty, Missouri: March 28
  • Mouth near St. Louis, Missouri: April 1

Mountain Snowpack:

Mountain snowpack accumulation continues and is slightly above average in the Fort Peck and Garrison Dam reaches. The mountain snowpack normally peaks near April 15. The mountain snowpack graphics can be viewed here: https://go.usa.gov/xE6wT.

Weekly updates on basin conditions, reservoir levels and other topics of interest can be viewed here: https://go.usa.gov/xE6wa.

Monthly Water Management Conference Calls

Water management calls include an update from the National Weather Service’s Missouri Basin River Forecast Center, an update on the Missouri River mainstem reservoir system operations, and updates on the ongoing and planned flood recovery efforts in both the Omaha and Kansas City districts. The next call for 2020 will be held Thursday, March 5 for Congressional delegations; Tribes; state, county and local government officials, levee and drainage districts; and the media. Calls will be recorded in their entirety and made available to the public on the Defense Video and Imagery Distribution System at www.dvidshub.net/unit/usace-nwd.

Spring Public Meetings:

Eight public meetings will be conducted throughout the basin April 6-9 and 14. The purpose of these meetings is to update the region on current hydrologic conditions and the planned operation of the mainstem reservoir system during the coming months. Meeting times and locations are listed below.

Monday, April 6 – Fort Peck, Montana
Start time: 10:30 a.m. (MDT)
Fort Peck Interpretative Center
Lower Yellowstone Rd.
Wednesday, April 8 – Smithville, Missouri
Start time: 11 a.m. (CDT)
Paradise Point Golf Course
18212 Golf Course Rd.
Tuesday, April 14 – Jefferson City, Missouri
Start time: 9 a.m. (CDT)
Capitol Plaza Hotel
415 West McCarty Street
Tuesday, April 7 – Bismarck, North Dakota
Start time: 9 a.m. (CDT)
Bismarck State College, National Energy
Center of Excellence (NECE), Bldg. 15, Rm 304
1200 Schafer Street
Wednesday, April 8 – Peru, Nebraska
Start time: 6 p.m. (CDT)
Peru State College Performing Arts Center
600 Hoyt Street
Tuesday, April 14 – St. Louis, Missouri
Start time: 2 p.m. (CDT)
VUE 17
1034 S. Brentwood Blvd, #1700
Tuesday, April 7 – Fort Pierre, South Dakota
Start time: 2 p.m. (CDT)
Casey Tibbs Conference Center
210 Verendrye Drive
Thursday, April 9 – Sioux City, Iowa
Start time: 11 a.m. (CDT)
Stoney Creek Hotel & Conference Center
300 3rd Street
 


Reservoir Forecasts:

Gavins Point Dam

  • Average releases past month – 34,800 cfs
  • Current release rate – 35,000 cfs (as of Mar 3)
  • Forecast release rate – 35,000 cfs
  • End-of-February reservoir level – 1206.1 feet
  • Forecast end-of-March reservoir level – 1206.1 feet
  • Notes: Releases will remain at 35,000 cfs in March, basin conditions permitting.

Fort Randall Dam

  • Average releases past month – 30,000 cfs
  • End-of-February reservoir level – 1343.7 feet (down 0.4 foot from January)
  • Forecast end-of-March reservoir level – 1354.3 feet
  • Notes: Releases will be adjusted as necessary to maintain the desired reservoir elevation at Gavins Point.

Big Bend Dam

  • Average releases past month – 26,100 cfs
  • Forecast average release rate – 30,100 cfs
  • Forecast reservoir level – 1420.5 feet

Oahe Dam

  • Average releases past month – 25,100 cfs
  • Forecast average release rate – 30,300 cfs
  • End-of-February reservoir level – 1308.2 feet (rising 1.0 foot during February)
  • Forecast end-of-March reservoir level – 1610.7 feet

Garrison Dam

  • Average releases past month – 24,900 cfs
  • Current release rate – 24,500 cfs
  • Forecast average release rate – 23,000 cfs
  • End-of-February reservoir level – 1837.9 feet (falling 0.1 foot during February)
  • Forecast end-of-March reservoir level – 1839.5 feet

Fort Peck Dam

  • Average releases past month – 12,300 cfs
  • Current release rate – 10,000 cfs
  • Forecast average release rate – reduce to 7,500 cfs on 7 March
  • End-of-February reservoir level – 2234.9 feet (down 0.4 foot from January)
  • Forecast end-of-March reservoir level – 2235.9 feet

The forecast reservoir releases and elevations discussed above are not definitive. Additional precipitation, lack of precipitation or other circumstances could cause adjustments to the reservoir release rates.

Hydropower:
The six mainstem power plants generated 855 million kWh of electricity in February. Typical energy generation for February is 619 million kWh. The power plants are projected to generate 11.8 billion kWh of electricity this year, compared to the long-term average of 9.4 billion kWh.

To view the detailed three-week release forecast for the mainstem dams, go to http://go.usa.gov/xVgWr.

MISSOURI RIVER MAINSTEM RESERVOIR DATA

 

Pool Elevation
(feet above mean sea level)

Water in Storage
(1,000 acre-feet)

 

On February 29

Change in February

On February 29

% of 1967-2019 Average

Change in February

Fort Peck

2234.9

-0.4

14,968

103

-102

Garrison

1837.9

-0.1

17,870

100

-35

Oahe

1608.2

+1.0

18,880

106

+309

Big Bend

1420.6

0.0

1,666

98

+1

Fort Randall

1343.7

-0.4

2,557

76

-27

Gavins Point

1206.1

-0.2

329

84

-6

 

 

Total

56,270

101

+140

 

 

WATER RELEASES AND ENERGY GENERATION FOR FEBRUARY

 

Average Release
in 1,000 cfs

Releases
in 1,000 acre-feet

Generation
in Million kWh

Fort Peck

12.3

708

118

Garrison

24.9

1,430

215

Oahe

25.1

1,442

215

Big Bend

26.1

1,502

86

Fort Randall

30.0

1,725

169

Gavins Point

34.8

2,001

52

 

 

Total

855


Contact
Eileen Williamson
402-996-3802
eileen.l.williamson@Usace.army.mil

Release no. 20-026