1 00:00:00,740 --> 00:00:02,907 Okay , good evening everybody . I want 2 00:00:02,907 --> 00:00:05,073 to welcome you all to our meeting here 3 00:00:05,073 --> 00:00:07,296 in uh bismarck , I'm Colonel Jeff . And 4 00:00:07,296 --> 00:00:09,351 that's uh , I'm the Commander of the 5 00:00:09,351 --> 00:00:11,462 Northwestern Division of the Corps of 6 00:00:11,462 --> 00:00:13,573 Engineers and I really appreciate all 7 00:00:13,573 --> 00:00:15,740 of you joining us . This is the second 8 00:00:15,740 --> 00:00:17,962 of our seven meetings that were holding 9 00:00:17,962 --> 00:00:20,129 this week from Fort peck Montana where 10 00:00:20,129 --> 00:00:22,240 we were this morning down to ST louis 11 00:00:22,240 --> 00:00:24,351 Missouri . On thursday morning I took 12 00:00:24,351 --> 00:00:26,462 over command of Northwestern division 13 00:00:26,462 --> 00:00:28,407 of decor in july and I've had some 14 00:00:28,407 --> 00:00:30,462 limited engagement with stakeholders 15 00:00:30,462 --> 00:00:32,573 throughout the basin . But I'm really 16 00:00:32,573 --> 00:00:34,796 looking forward to having a broader and 17 00:00:34,796 --> 00:00:36,907 deeper set of discussions , including 18 00:00:36,907 --> 00:00:39,129 those that I hope we can have here this 19 00:00:39,129 --> 00:00:41,296 evening . It's been two years since we 20 00:00:41,296 --> 00:00:43,296 had in person meetings and a lot of 21 00:00:43,296 --> 00:00:46,550 change has changed in that time In 2019 , 22 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:48,616 we were all dealing with near record 23 00:00:48,616 --> 00:00:52,180 floods , uh extensive runoff and now 24 00:00:52,180 --> 00:00:54,180 we're looking at a severe drought , 25 00:00:54,180 --> 00:00:56,347 especially in the upper basin . I just 26 00:00:56,347 --> 00:00:58,236 want to remind everybody that the 27 00:00:58,236 --> 00:01:00,458 Missouri River mainstream and reservoir 28 00:01:00,458 --> 00:01:02,569 system is designed to serve all eight 29 00:01:02,569 --> 00:01:02,220 of the authorized purposes in both 30 00:01:02,220 --> 00:01:05,410 flood years and in drought . And we'll 31 00:01:05,410 --> 00:01:07,577 talk more about this when the Missouri 32 00:01:07,577 --> 00:01:09,354 River basin Water Mansion staff 33 00:01:09,354 --> 00:01:11,400 provides additional details on the 34 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:13,678 slides that will show here in a second . 35 00:01:13,678 --> 00:01:15,622 Before we begin with the technical 36 00:01:15,622 --> 00:01:17,789 portion of being , I want to introduce 37 00:01:17,789 --> 00:01:17,510 core staff and attendants . So let me 38 00:01:17,510 --> 00:01:19,970 run through and uh just provide some 39 00:01:19,970 --> 00:01:22,660 introductions . I'll start over here . 40 00:01:22,660 --> 00:01:25,630 We've got Mike Swenson and kevin Grody , 41 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:29,490 I mean Williamson from Public Affairs . 42 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:34,020 Uhh let's see about john Remus Ed 43 00:01:34,020 --> 00:01:37,900 Clary . Colonel Mark Hives , your local 44 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:40,862 district level commander out of Omaha . 45 00:01:40,862 --> 00:01:43,360 Aw , we've got kayla 46 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:47,600 Eckerd up more from our cheapest civil 47 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:50,770 works in the Omaha District . We've got 48 00:01:50,770 --> 00:01:53,020 chua Newman , our Chief of Operations , 49 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,340 uhh in the back there , we've got 50 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:01,780 my X . O Lieutenant Harrison and then 51 00:02:01,780 --> 00:02:03,947 from the , from the garrison project , 52 00:02:03,947 --> 00:02:05,947 we've got Dave back in chris Silver 53 00:02:05,947 --> 00:02:08,169 Naval . So these are all folks who have 54 00:02:08,169 --> 00:02:10,169 expertise in various areas that can 55 00:02:10,169 --> 00:02:12,224 help answer questions that you might 56 00:02:12,224 --> 00:02:14,336 have or address any comments that you 57 00:02:14,336 --> 00:02:16,502 have for us as we're going through the 58 00:02:16,502 --> 00:02:16,430 evening , just as a reminder of 59 00:02:16,430 --> 00:02:18,652 everyone's safety , we're gonna ask all 60 00:02:18,652 --> 00:02:20,708 attendees to wear a face mask and we 61 00:02:20,708 --> 00:02:22,652 appreciate cooperation when you're 62 00:02:22,652 --> 00:02:24,708 speaking , just like I have , you're 63 00:02:24,708 --> 00:02:26,930 welcome to uncover your face so you can 64 00:02:26,930 --> 00:02:26,280 speak more clearly and be more easily 65 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:28,280 understood . And if you want a good 66 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:30,447 question to ask the question to make a 67 00:02:30,447 --> 00:02:32,669 comment , you're welcome to come to the 68 00:02:32,669 --> 00:02:34,836 front of the room , use the microphone 69 00:02:34,836 --> 00:02:34,370 and addressed the entire crowd . Any 70 00:02:34,370 --> 00:02:36,481 questions before ? I hate this over , 71 00:02:36,481 --> 00:02:40,150 john Remus No . Okay , great , thanks . 72 00:02:40,150 --> 00:02:42,372 I really appreciate it . Then john over 73 00:02:42,372 --> 00:02:45,760 to you . Thank you , Colonel , a little 74 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:47,982 housekeeping here before we get started 75 00:02:47,982 --> 00:02:51,900 um , out on the table , There's some , 76 00:02:51,910 --> 00:02:54,077 the copy of the slides you're going to 77 00:02:54,077 --> 00:02:56,510 see . And there's a statement card . If 78 00:02:56,510 --> 00:02:58,621 you'd like to make a statement . We'd 79 00:02:58,621 --> 00:03:00,732 appreciate it If you'd uh , build one 80 00:03:00,732 --> 00:03:02,788 of these things out , so we know who 81 00:03:02,788 --> 00:03:04,954 made the statement and get it right in 82 00:03:04,954 --> 00:03:07,177 the notes . Uh so if you want a card or 83 00:03:07,177 --> 00:03:06,880 a copy of the slides , just raise your 84 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:09,490 hand and edge and bring it to you and 85 00:03:09,490 --> 00:03:11,657 then if you fill out the car and wants 86 00:03:11,657 --> 00:03:13,768 to pick it up , just hold it up there 87 00:03:13,768 --> 00:03:16,101 and collect the floor you are from here , 88 00:03:16,101 --> 00:03:19,940 right . Uhh We also ask that if you 89 00:03:19,940 --> 00:03:22,550 intend to uh make a statement from a 90 00:03:22,550 --> 00:03:24,772 written statement , that you leave us a 91 00:03:24,772 --> 00:03:26,828 copy of that statement so we can get 92 00:03:26,828 --> 00:03:28,994 together right in the nose . There's a 93 00:03:28,994 --> 00:03:31,380 lot of ways to provide comments on our 94 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:33,640 annual operating plan . You can do it 95 00:03:33,640 --> 00:03:36,170 here tonight , verbally , you can fill 96 00:03:36,170 --> 00:03:38,250 out a comment card that are on the 97 00:03:38,260 --> 00:03:41,280 table as well . You can also fail in 98 00:03:41,290 --> 00:03:43,560 your comments . We have the address on 99 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:46,040 on our table here as well as on our 100 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:48,920 slide , our rest slide . Or you can 101 00:03:48,930 --> 00:03:51,950 just email it to us or email address is 102 00:03:51,950 --> 00:03:54,061 also on the last slide , it's like or 103 00:03:54,061 --> 00:03:56,006 you can just google Missouri River 104 00:03:56,006 --> 00:03:58,172 Water Management . We're the top one . 105 00:03:58,172 --> 00:04:00,394 Just click on that and follow the links 106 00:04:00,394 --> 00:04:04,370 to our Uh we 107 00:04:04,370 --> 00:04:07,320 posted our craft annual operating plan 108 00:04:07,330 --> 00:04:10,430 for the 2021 , year in late 109 00:04:10,430 --> 00:04:12,840 September and it is open for time and 110 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:14,507 until the 24th we know better 111 00:04:17,940 --> 00:04:19,996 when we started , we're gonna have a 112 00:04:19,996 --> 00:04:21,940 technical presentation by Mike and 113 00:04:21,940 --> 00:04:23,940 Kevin here in a few minutes . After 114 00:04:23,940 --> 00:04:25,996 that last question I asked , we will 115 00:04:25,996 --> 00:04:28,218 start with any the question answer with 116 00:04:28,218 --> 00:04:30,273 any congressional representatives or 117 00:04:30,273 --> 00:04:32,440 their staff followed by the folks that 118 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:34,662 filled out the cars and then just we'll 119 00:04:34,662 --> 00:04:37,060 open it up to the the general audience 120 00:04:41,740 --> 00:04:43,851 because we don't have a large staff . 121 00:04:43,851 --> 00:04:45,851 Usually we ask people to hold their 122 00:04:45,851 --> 00:04:48,073 comments or questions for three minutes 123 00:04:48,073 --> 00:04:50,296 because we don't have a huge crowd here 124 00:04:50,296 --> 00:04:52,462 tonight . Uh you're welcome to take as 125 00:04:52,462 --> 00:04:54,407 long as you need to either ask the 126 00:04:54,407 --> 00:04:57,780 question provided with that . I think I 127 00:04:57,780 --> 00:04:59,780 turned over to Kevin Roadie for the 128 00:04:59,780 --> 00:05:02,340 technical show . Yeah . 129 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:07,150 Mhm . Mhm . 130 00:05:10,140 --> 00:05:11,196 Thank you , john . 131 00:05:14,540 --> 00:05:17,790 So his friend with benefits note that 132 00:05:17,790 --> 00:05:20,110 this is the second of seven meetings 133 00:05:20,110 --> 00:05:23,350 that we're gonna be having this this 134 00:05:23,350 --> 00:05:23,960 week . 135 00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:32,529 Another person who's here that we 136 00:05:32,529 --> 00:05:34,584 didn't mention was a challenge law . 137 00:05:34,584 --> 00:05:38,500 You're here now we don't . Yeah . L A 138 00:05:38,510 --> 00:05:40,621 hydrologist with the National Weather 139 00:05:40,621 --> 00:05:43,060 Service office here in bismarck . Um 140 00:05:43,540 --> 00:05:45,680 The National Weather Service is a 141 00:05:45,690 --> 00:05:48,500 Treasury Partner of the poor . We 142 00:05:48,500 --> 00:05:50,960 communicate with them on an ongoing 143 00:05:50,970 --> 00:05:53,710 basis during flood years , drought 144 00:05:53,710 --> 00:05:56,190 years and everything in between . We 145 00:05:56,190 --> 00:05:59,650 share information with each other . We 146 00:05:59,660 --> 00:06:02,200 go to them when it comes to the climate 147 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:04,033 and weather because they are the 148 00:06:04,033 --> 00:06:07,060 experts and keeping that in mind 149 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:10,680 this part of the presentation is really 150 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:12,590 something from kevin Lau who is a 151 00:06:12,590 --> 00:06:15,420 hydrologist with the Missouri Basin 152 00:06:15,420 --> 00:06:17,587 River forecast center in Pleasant Hill 153 00:06:17,587 --> 00:06:20,050 Missouri . These are his words , these 154 00:06:20,050 --> 00:06:22,280 are their graphics , we are simply just 155 00:06:22,280 --> 00:06:25,060 the messenger of things during the Q 156 00:06:25,060 --> 00:06:27,460 and A theory . If you have any climates 157 00:06:27,460 --> 00:06:29,650 or whether related sort of questions , 158 00:06:30,540 --> 00:06:32,540 we have , alan here to provide that 159 00:06:32,540 --> 00:06:36,450 expert response . So with that , 160 00:06:39,540 --> 00:06:41,262 let's talk about the weather . 161 00:06:43,840 --> 00:06:46,062 So much of the Missouri River basin has 162 00:06:46,062 --> 00:06:47,729 continued to see below normal 163 00:06:47,729 --> 00:06:49,618 precipitation over the past three 164 00:06:49,618 --> 00:06:52,220 months and you can see that in the 165 00:06:52,220 --> 00:06:54,331 scrap booking for those um going to a 166 00:06:54,331 --> 00:06:56,553 point that this one more than any other 167 00:06:56,553 --> 00:06:59,010 one . So you can see in this graphic 168 00:06:59,020 --> 00:07:00,742 right here is gonna be talking 169 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:06,880 as well over as well as over the past 170 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:09,102 six months , which is in this traffic . 171 00:07:11,140 --> 00:07:13,196 Many in the areas have received only 172 00:07:13,196 --> 00:07:15,930 25-70% of normal precipitation over 173 00:07:15,930 --> 00:07:19,570 these time periods So hard . In 2021 , 174 00:07:19,700 --> 00:07:22,300 it has been the 26th , driest year on 175 00:07:22,300 --> 00:07:25,210 record over the past 127 years of 176 00:07:25,210 --> 00:07:26,210 record . 177 00:07:29,140 --> 00:07:31,251 So the below normal precipitation has 178 00:07:31,251 --> 00:07:33,251 resulted in very dry soils over the 179 00:07:33,251 --> 00:07:35,362 basin . As depicted in this graphic . 180 00:07:37,300 --> 00:07:41,040 Let me show you Yeah , 181 00:07:43,540 --> 00:07:45,460 That deep burgundy area in the 182 00:07:45,460 --> 00:07:47,293 northeast Montana for instance , 183 00:07:47,293 --> 00:07:49,680 represents the driest 1% of model 184 00:07:49,690 --> 00:07:52,540 record . The yellow area is ranked in 185 00:07:52,540 --> 00:07:55,870 the driest 30% . The lack of moisture 186 00:07:55,870 --> 00:07:58,320 has led to 65% of the Missouri River 187 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:00,431 basin being categorized in some level 188 00:08:00,431 --> 00:08:02,450 of drought and that shoulder is a 189 00:08:02,460 --> 00:08:04,682 photographic right here in this table . 190 00:08:09,540 --> 00:08:11,707 So moving on into the seasonal drought 191 00:08:11,707 --> 00:08:14,980 outlook as we look over the next three 192 00:08:14,980 --> 00:08:17,036 months , no one believes the ongoing 193 00:08:17,036 --> 00:08:20,750 drought Will persist into 2022 or much 194 00:08:20,750 --> 00:08:22,861 of the Missouri River Basin . And you 195 00:08:22,861 --> 00:08:25,510 can see that with this deep brown color 196 00:08:27,510 --> 00:08:29,510 that indicates drought persistent . 197 00:08:31,140 --> 00:08:34,740 Now we expect some drought to expand 198 00:08:34,770 --> 00:08:37,340 and that's in this yellow areas in 199 00:08:37,340 --> 00:08:41,130 parts of Kansas and colorado . However , 200 00:08:41,140 --> 00:08:44,680 we do see in this light tan color that 201 00:08:44,680 --> 00:08:47,220 conditions are likely to improve in 202 00:08:47,220 --> 00:08:48,276 parts of Montana . 203 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:57,800 So far , 2021 , it's been the 25th 204 00:08:57,800 --> 00:08:59,744 warmest year in the Missouri River 205 00:08:59,744 --> 00:09:02,150 basin in 127 years of record keeping 206 00:09:03,040 --> 00:09:04,873 this warmer than normal trend is 207 00:09:04,873 --> 00:09:07,096 expected to continue in the western and 208 00:09:07,096 --> 00:09:09,318 southern portions of the Missouri basin 209 00:09:09,318 --> 00:09:11,373 for the month of november and that's 210 00:09:11,373 --> 00:09:13,262 shown in the ground colors here . 211 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:18,873 However , you will note that the 212 00:09:18,873 --> 00:09:21,096 northern portion of the basin is shaded 213 00:09:21,096 --> 00:09:23,429 in white in the upper left hand graphic . 214 00:09:23,500 --> 00:09:25,611 And what he's doing is he's referring 215 00:09:25,611 --> 00:09:27,722 to this part here where it says equal 216 00:09:27,722 --> 00:09:29,889 chances , what that means that climate 217 00:09:29,889 --> 00:09:32,056 signals are not strong enough to cause 218 00:09:32,056 --> 00:09:34,610 odds to favor above below or near 219 00:09:34,610 --> 00:09:36,760 normal temperatures . We just don't 220 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:40,000 know the precipitation trend expected 221 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:42,222 in november is shown in the lower right 222 00:09:42,222 --> 00:09:44,333 hand crafted . I'm talking about this 223 00:09:44,333 --> 00:09:46,278 one right here again , much of the 224 00:09:46,278 --> 00:09:48,389 basin here is in white , meaning that 225 00:09:48,389 --> 00:09:50,500 there could be normal above normal or 226 00:09:50,500 --> 00:09:52,490 below normal precipitation . The 227 00:09:52,500 --> 00:09:54,444 climate signals just enough strong 228 00:09:54,444 --> 00:09:56,333 enough to allow us to say what is 229 00:09:56,333 --> 00:09:59,130 likely to have . You will note however , 230 00:09:59,130 --> 00:10:01,280 that above normal precipitation is 231 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:04,150 slightly favored during november for my 232 00:10:04,150 --> 00:10:06,500 own Montana at least I got this green . 233 00:10:12,740 --> 00:10:14,740 So looking ahead to the three month 234 00:10:14,740 --> 00:10:17,410 period of november december and january 235 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:19,440 warmer than normal temperatures are 236 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:21,496 expected to continue in the southern 237 00:10:21,496 --> 00:10:23,440 half of the Missouri River basin , 238 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:25,551 which is indicating right here in the 239 00:10:25,551 --> 00:10:26,551 browns . 240 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:32,296 And just as we saw in the last fight 241 00:10:32,296 --> 00:10:34,351 with one month of november outlook , 242 00:10:34,351 --> 00:10:36,573 climate signals cannot provide a strong 243 00:10:36,573 --> 00:10:38,684 indication of temperature trends over 244 00:10:38,684 --> 00:10:40,851 the northern half of the basis for the 245 00:10:40,851 --> 00:10:43,073 next three months . So hence you'll see 246 00:10:43,073 --> 00:10:45,240 the white area , which indicates there 247 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:47,240 is a just as much chance for warmer 248 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:49,407 than normal as there is for lower than 249 00:10:49,407 --> 00:10:51,629 normal or just near normal temperatures 250 00:10:51,629 --> 00:10:53,796 through gender . So excited about this 251 00:10:53,796 --> 00:10:56,750 right equal chances . And just as we 252 00:10:56,750 --> 00:10:58,528 saw with the one month november 253 00:10:58,528 --> 00:11:01,180 precipitation outlook , the lower right 254 00:11:01,180 --> 00:11:03,347 hand graphic says that for the bulk of 255 00:11:03,347 --> 00:11:05,569 them is very basic . We just don't know 256 00:11:05,569 --> 00:11:07,569 what precipitation will be over the 257 00:11:07,569 --> 00:11:10,050 next three months . However , just like 258 00:11:10,050 --> 00:11:12,050 in the one month november outlook , 259 00:11:12,140 --> 00:11:14,390 odds continue to favor above normal 260 00:11:14,390 --> 00:11:16,501 precipitation in the northern rockies 261 00:11:16,501 --> 00:11:18,668 over the next three months and this is 262 00:11:18,668 --> 00:11:20,779 in keeping with the expectation of La 263 00:11:20,779 --> 00:11:23,001 Nina conditions . So he's talking about 264 00:11:23,001 --> 00:11:26,770 this right here , john emery only and 265 00:11:26,770 --> 00:11:28,992 then keep your chances with the rest of 266 00:11:28,992 --> 00:11:31,103 the basis for the next three months . 267 00:11:33,540 --> 00:11:35,940 So last thursday and the 21st of 268 00:11:35,940 --> 00:11:38,760 october Noah's Climate prediction 269 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:42,080 center released its 2021 22 U . S . 270 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:45,100 Winter out you're out of the show right 271 00:11:45,100 --> 00:11:47,660 here which is really long 272 00:11:49,340 --> 00:11:51,451 or you can simply type in the U . S . 273 00:11:51,451 --> 00:11:53,810 Winter climate in your search thing . 274 00:11:57,640 --> 00:11:59,807 Loving your conditions are expected to 275 00:11:59,807 --> 00:12:02,570 return for a second time in a row . No 276 00:12:02,570 --> 00:12:04,910 two Latinos behave the same . But in 277 00:12:04,910 --> 00:12:08,110 general , La Ninas leans towards cooler 278 00:12:08,110 --> 00:12:09,888 than normal temperatures in the 279 00:12:09,888 --> 00:12:11,943 northern portion of the basement and 280 00:12:11,943 --> 00:12:13,721 leading towards an above normal 281 00:12:13,721 --> 00:12:16,210 snowpack in Montana . And Wyoming a 282 00:12:16,220 --> 00:12:18,220 caution here is though we're saying 283 00:12:18,220 --> 00:12:21,560 leans towards not guaranteed . 284 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:24,720 No two loonies are the same , but La 285 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:27,310 Nina typically means for us like it 286 00:12:27,310 --> 00:12:29,660 could be cold in the north and favors a 287 00:12:29,660 --> 00:12:31,710 good snowpack in the northern 288 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:36,951 and here really is the summary of out 289 00:12:36,951 --> 00:12:39,810 with dad , a very dry warm here has led 290 00:12:39,820 --> 00:12:41,487 to soil moisture deficits and 291 00:12:41,487 --> 00:12:44,000 persistent drought warmer than normal 292 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,111 temperatures are expected to continue 293 00:12:46,111 --> 00:12:48,222 into january for at least in southern 294 00:12:48,222 --> 00:12:50,222 half of the reason we're really not 295 00:12:50,222 --> 00:12:52,222 sure what temperature trans will be 296 00:12:52,222 --> 00:12:54,222 from the north again off chances in 297 00:12:54,222 --> 00:12:56,333 favor of what winter for the northern 298 00:12:56,333 --> 00:12:58,333 Iraqis . There is no need signal to 299 00:12:58,333 --> 00:13:00,556 educate precipitation transmit majority 300 00:13:00,556 --> 00:13:02,722 of the base of the next three months . 301 00:13:02,722 --> 00:13:04,667 We already talked about the winter 302 00:13:04,667 --> 00:13:06,833 outlook . It's on that slide there . I 303 00:13:06,833 --> 00:13:08,833 think the last Point Kevin wants to 304 00:13:08,833 --> 00:13:10,722 make is that the National Weather 305 00:13:10,722 --> 00:13:12,778 Service will issue its spring flight 306 00:13:12,778 --> 00:13:14,889 out . What's beginning in February of 307 00:13:14,889 --> 00:13:18,480 2022 . So we do appreciate that from 308 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:20,480 Kevin and his group down the rules 309 00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:22,369 replacing river forecast center . 310 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:33,000 So jOHn mentioned there are deep 311 00:13:33,010 --> 00:13:36,080 offerings purposes too . The regulation 312 00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:38,247 of the Missouri based water management 313 00:13:38,247 --> 00:13:41,450 reservoir system . We all when we make 314 00:13:41,460 --> 00:13:44,380 reservoir regulation decisions , we we 315 00:13:44,380 --> 00:13:47,080 keep in mind flood control , navigation , 316 00:13:47,090 --> 00:13:49,340 water supply , hydropower , official 317 00:13:49,340 --> 00:13:51,830 wildlife , irrigation , recreation and 318 00:13:51,830 --> 00:13:54,210 water quality control . Now we have 319 00:13:54,210 --> 00:13:56,250 these three on top flood control . 320 00:13:56,260 --> 00:13:58,371 Navigation in waters like that is not 321 00:13:58,371 --> 00:14:00,593 because we like them better than any of 322 00:14:00,593 --> 00:14:02,704 the other ones , like all of them the 323 00:14:02,704 --> 00:14:05,990 same . But we put these on top because 324 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:08,910 we make regulation decisions for these 325 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:11,770 three primarily . And while doing that , 326 00:14:11,780 --> 00:14:14,650 we are serving the other five purposes . 327 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,350 The other point I want to make here is 328 00:14:20,350 --> 00:14:22,517 that when we do make those regulations 329 00:14:22,517 --> 00:14:24,750 decisions , we do follow all federal 330 00:14:24,750 --> 00:14:28,650 moments . So 331 00:14:28,650 --> 00:14:31,540 this graphic does not detect any one of 332 00:14:31,540 --> 00:14:35,080 the six main stem reservoirs . It's if 333 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:37,024 you took all six of them in a good 334 00:14:37,024 --> 00:14:39,410 image of one and we do that purposely 335 00:14:39,420 --> 00:14:41,620 because some of the decisions we make 336 00:14:41,630 --> 00:14:43,741 are based on how much water is in the 337 00:14:43,741 --> 00:14:47,360 system or how much water is in all six 338 00:14:47,370 --> 00:14:51,100 of the mainstream reservoirs . So there 339 00:14:51,100 --> 00:14:53,322 are four zones there's a permanent pool 340 00:14:53,322 --> 00:14:55,322 zone , which is a minimum amount of 341 00:14:55,322 --> 00:14:57,440 water we need to do to serve some 342 00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:00,490 hydropower purposes . And then we have 343 00:15:00,490 --> 00:15:03,110 to carry over multiple uses own . And 344 00:15:03,110 --> 00:15:05,166 the way to explain this is only it's 345 00:15:05,166 --> 00:15:07,166 kind of that bank account to get us 346 00:15:07,166 --> 00:15:10,490 through long extended droughts . This 347 00:15:10,490 --> 00:15:13,260 exclusive control zone is the top zone . 348 00:15:13,940 --> 00:15:15,940 And just as the name implies , when 349 00:15:15,940 --> 00:15:18,660 we're in that zone regulations , we 350 00:15:18,660 --> 00:15:20,771 make the regulation decisions we make 351 00:15:20,771 --> 00:15:23,049 are based exclusively on flood control . 352 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:27,620 This is the zone we like to be in 365 353 00:15:27,630 --> 00:15:29,610 days out of the year reflected in 354 00:15:29,610 --> 00:15:32,630 multiple uses Ideally . We would start 355 00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:34,807 the run off season which is on a which 356 00:15:34,807 --> 00:15:37,640 is on or near March one and then as we 357 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:39,790 saw the plane , snowmelt and rainfall 358 00:15:39,790 --> 00:15:41,734 occurred during March neighborhood 359 00:15:41,734 --> 00:15:44,050 slowly rise into this zone . And then 360 00:15:44,050 --> 00:15:46,230 as we get into May , june and july , 361 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:48,351 the mountain snow pack is melting and 362 00:15:48,351 --> 00:15:50,573 the rainfall is occurring weeks of peak 363 00:15:50,573 --> 00:15:53,710 somewhere in early two Mitchell up and 364 00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:55,887 through the dry months of the fall and 365 00:15:55,887 --> 00:15:57,942 winter would slowly meter that water 366 00:15:57,942 --> 00:15:59,720 out to serve all the authorized 367 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:01,887 privileges until we start the next one 368 00:16:01,887 --> 00:16:04,053 off season right here at the base that 369 00:16:04,053 --> 00:16:05,998 you can see this is where we're at 370 00:16:05,998 --> 00:16:08,164 right now , More than six million acre 371 00:16:08,164 --> 00:16:10,220 feet into this carrier . A multi use 372 00:16:10,220 --> 00:16:12,276 zone , which indicates that we're in 373 00:16:12,276 --> 00:16:13,887 drought conditions and water 374 00:16:13,887 --> 00:16:15,942 conservation measures of being , you 375 00:16:15,942 --> 00:16:19,380 know , so the three components of 376 00:16:19,380 --> 00:16:22,320 runoff into the system , the plains 377 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,431 snowpack which melts off in March and 378 00:16:24,431 --> 00:16:26,790 april mountain snowpack which melts off 379 00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:29,280 and made him in july . And then during 380 00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:31,391 those five months ross is saying that 381 00:16:31,391 --> 00:16:33,447 the amount of precipitation from the 382 00:16:33,447 --> 00:16:35,870 upper basin , We normally see 25% of 383 00:16:35,870 --> 00:16:39,070 the annual run up During those two 384 00:16:39,070 --> 00:16:40,959 months when the planes go back is 385 00:16:40,959 --> 00:16:43,126 melting in March in April we see about 386 00:16:43,126 --> 00:16:45,348 50% During that three-month period when 387 00:16:45,348 --> 00:16:47,514 the mountain snow pack is melting that 388 00:16:47,514 --> 00:16:50,680 25% because it is like seven the other 389 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,520 seven months . Our forecast , which we 390 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:56,260 updated on October one we updated on 391 00:16:56,260 --> 00:16:59,200 the First day of each month . So we'll 392 00:16:59,210 --> 00:17:01,377 update again , we'll update this again 393 00:17:01,377 --> 00:17:03,321 on November one in December one in 394 00:17:03,321 --> 00:17:06,000 January one . But our forecast right 395 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:09,270 now is 14.8 million acre feet which is 396 00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:12,140 pretty low . It's a lower kessel run 397 00:17:12,140 --> 00:17:15,880 off And our annual runoff 398 00:17:15,890 --> 00:17:17,800 averages 25 29 . 399 00:17:21,540 --> 00:17:23,750 So this graph really shows where that 400 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:27,650 14.8 stacks up against the last 120 401 00:17:27,660 --> 00:17:29,950 33 years of record . You can see this 402 00:17:29,950 --> 00:17:32,200 is the lower death style which means 403 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:35,980 10% below 90% above U . D . 404 00:17:35,990 --> 00:17:38,440 Stands for upper deaths on U . Q . U . 405 00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:41,270 Stands for upper quartile . So 25% 406 00:17:41,270 --> 00:17:44,860 above 75% below Michael . Talk about 407 00:17:44,860 --> 00:17:47,310 more about those mornings for the 408 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:50,350 reason what I want to point out is the 409 00:17:50,360 --> 00:17:53,440 brown areas here Which is the extended 410 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:55,662 droughts that are basin has seen in the 411 00:17:55,662 --> 00:17:59,570 last 123 . So 412 00:17:59,580 --> 00:18:03,550 fall individual releases right 413 00:18:03,550 --> 00:18:05,494 now Gavin's point releases will be 414 00:18:05,494 --> 00:18:07,494 reduced to whatever starting around 415 00:18:07,494 --> 00:18:10,310 november 22nd . That is normal . I did 416 00:18:10,310 --> 00:18:12,199 say we were in water conservation 417 00:18:12,199 --> 00:18:14,366 measures . What that means is that the 418 00:18:14,366 --> 00:18:16,870 service level based on this july one 419 00:18:16,870 --> 00:18:19,590 system storage check , we reduce the 420 00:18:19,590 --> 00:18:21,930 service level or the amount of water 421 00:18:21,930 --> 00:18:23,874 coming out again is going to serve 422 00:18:23,874 --> 00:18:26,280 navigation just slightly . But the 423 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:29,660 season like Remain a normal eight month 424 00:18:29,660 --> 00:18:32,640 season , That means that we will start 425 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:35,500 reducing releases on November 22 426 00:18:35,510 --> 00:18:38,370 because the eight-month season length 427 00:18:38,370 --> 00:18:40,460 will end on December one at the 428 00:18:42,140 --> 00:18:44,029 as we always do , we will closely 429 00:18:44,029 --> 00:18:47,310 monitoring channel uh channel and ice 430 00:18:47,310 --> 00:18:49,366 conditions downstream of everyone in 431 00:18:49,366 --> 00:18:51,120 the projects and downstream of 432 00:18:51,130 --> 00:18:54,760 especially in remote river I hope that 433 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:57,100 Gavin's point releases again , storage 434 00:18:57,330 --> 00:18:59,441 is based on the september one storage 435 00:18:59,441 --> 00:19:01,330 check and those are going to be a 436 00:19:01,330 --> 00:19:04,770 minimum rate of 12,000 Cfs And then the 437 00:19:04,770 --> 00:19:06,937 expected average releases again , this 438 00:19:06,937 --> 00:19:10,380 is average market releases for Pat 439 00:19:10,390 --> 00:19:12,960 Harrison and hands are laid out here . 440 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:15,440 What they do want to point out is I 441 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:17,662 just got done saying 12,000 and then we 442 00:19:17,662 --> 00:19:20,830 put down 12,005 and really what that 443 00:19:20,830 --> 00:19:23,220 reflects is during very , very cold 444 00:19:23,230 --> 00:19:25,630 periods . What we found is that if we 445 00:19:25,630 --> 00:19:27,741 need to increase releases from out of 446 00:19:27,741 --> 00:19:31,380 Gavin's point just a little bit um and 447 00:19:31,380 --> 00:19:35,300 that helps stave off any ice jams . Uh 448 00:19:35,310 --> 00:19:37,490 and that usually lasts a few days , 449 00:19:37,490 --> 00:19:39,670 maybe a week or so . But that is why 450 00:19:39,670 --> 00:19:43,390 we're 3 12,000 activity . That's 451 00:19:43,390 --> 00:19:44,501 whatever you like . 452 00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:50,330 Okay , thanks Gavin . I'm gonna 453 00:19:50,340 --> 00:19:52,460 continue the presentation by talking 454 00:19:52,460 --> 00:19:55,750 about regulation this year and then 455 00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:58,520 our regulation next year , how that 456 00:19:58,860 --> 00:20:02,550 project purposes first year 457 00:20:02,550 --> 00:20:04,730 snapshot of the current reservoir 458 00:20:04,730 --> 00:20:06,900 levels . This is similar to Kevin's 459 00:20:06,910 --> 00:20:09,460 earlier slide where it shows the 460 00:20:09,470 --> 00:20:12,850 storage zones at the different projects . 461 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:17,420 You can see here that Fort Peck is 6.7 462 00:20:17,430 --> 00:20:19,486 people on the basis of flood control 463 00:20:19,486 --> 00:20:23,300 zone . Here's in 6.88 , a lot of 10 ft 464 00:20:23,310 --> 00:20:25,970 below . Uh It's basically a flood 465 00:20:25,970 --> 00:20:28,310 control zone over the next few months 466 00:20:28,310 --> 00:20:30,520 will adjust releases that these upper 467 00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:33,040 three projects to better balance the 468 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,920 storage in those carry over ultimately 469 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,530 used zones Prior to next year's run off 470 00:20:38,530 --> 00:20:42,170 season , Fort Randall is just 471 00:20:42,170 --> 00:20:45,670 slightly below its carry over the base 472 00:20:45,670 --> 00:20:47,880 of its flood control zone . That 473 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:50,200 project is typically drawn down the 474 00:20:50,210 --> 00:20:54,110 fall 1337 and then it's refilled 475 00:20:54,110 --> 00:20:56,180 over the winter that gives us some 476 00:20:56,180 --> 00:20:59,360 extra winter energy generation . That 477 00:20:59,360 --> 00:21:01,360 project will be drawn down and then 478 00:21:01,360 --> 00:21:03,550 being built for next year . 479 00:21:06,740 --> 00:21:08,700 So on kevin's earlier slide , you 480 00:21:08,700 --> 00:21:10,811 mentioned those five different runoff 481 00:21:10,811 --> 00:21:13,170 scenarios from the upper decks out of 482 00:21:13,170 --> 00:21:15,337 the lower depths out . So it's part of 483 00:21:15,337 --> 00:21:17,490 the draft lP we take those five 484 00:21:17,500 --> 00:21:20,130 different runoff scenarios and we put 485 00:21:20,130 --> 00:21:22,352 them into our reservoir models and then 486 00:21:22,352 --> 00:21:24,910 we project out into next year . Those 487 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:28,370 five Kroft scenarios give us a range of 488 00:21:28,380 --> 00:21:30,550 elevations and releases that we could 489 00:21:30,550 --> 00:21:33,690 see next year based on a range of 490 00:21:33,700 --> 00:21:37,150 conditions . This slide here that shows 491 00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:40,840 the system storage . The black line 492 00:21:40,850 --> 00:21:43,072 here is assistant storage going back to 493 00:21:43,072 --> 00:21:45,980 the beginning of the year . The blue 494 00:21:45,980 --> 00:21:48,730 line is a system storage based on the 495 00:21:48,740 --> 00:21:50,810 median runoff condition that kevin 496 00:21:50,810 --> 00:21:53,530 talked about . And then we have the 497 00:21:53,540 --> 00:21:55,429 lower red line which is the lower 498 00:21:55,429 --> 00:21:58,180 depths out and the upper decks out is 499 00:21:58,180 --> 00:22:01,170 the help of red line the draft a 500 00:22:01,170 --> 00:22:03,760 appeals as the upper and lower courts 501 00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:06,590 out of lava scenarios in it . If you 502 00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:08,378 want to take a look at for more 503 00:22:08,378 --> 00:22:11,260 information , we also see on this slide 504 00:22:11,270 --> 00:22:15,140 three green triangles , the March which 505 00:22:15,140 --> 00:22:17,270 are the three system storage checks , 506 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:20,440 March 15th storage checks . That's the 507 00:22:20,450 --> 00:22:22,617 navigation service level for the first 508 00:22:22,617 --> 00:22:24,960 part of the navigation season . The 509 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:27,820 july 1st storage check sets the 510 00:22:27,830 --> 00:22:30,052 navigation service level for the second 511 00:22:30,052 --> 00:22:32,108 part of the season and then also the 512 00:22:32,108 --> 00:22:34,190 season length And then the September 513 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:36,650 one storage check sets the Gavin's 514 00:22:36,650 --> 00:22:40,040 point winner released love . So if you 515 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,262 go back and look at the Black Pioneer , 516 00:22:42,262 --> 00:22:44,373 you can see we started the year right 517 00:22:44,373 --> 00:22:46,540 where we want to be at the base of the 518 00:22:46,540 --> 00:22:48,651 annual flood control zone because the 519 00:22:48,651 --> 00:22:51,130 runoff was solo . We really didn't gain 520 00:22:51,130 --> 00:22:53,730 much storage this year . Just kind of 521 00:22:53,730 --> 00:22:55,590 held in there and then it's been 522 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:59,090 dropping ever since . And then you can 523 00:22:59,090 --> 00:23:01,201 see depending on what kind of run off 524 00:23:01,201 --> 00:23:03,780 we get next year will be a very , you 525 00:23:03,780 --> 00:23:06,260 know , impacting what kind of stories 526 00:23:06,260 --> 00:23:09,000 we have . So under the upper decks out 527 00:23:09,010 --> 00:23:11,590 basically a full recovery uh to the 528 00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:13,822 base of the annual flood control zone , 529 00:23:13,890 --> 00:23:16,140 medium runoff condition . We do see 530 00:23:16,150 --> 00:23:19,060 some recovery of the reservoir system . 531 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:22,410 We get another dry year with the lower 532 00:23:22,420 --> 00:23:25,160 court title or decimal pepperoni off . 533 00:23:25,170 --> 00:23:27,059 We'll see continued low reservoir 534 00:23:27,059 --> 00:23:29,270 levels going through next year . 535 00:23:32,140 --> 00:23:34,140 The next three slides here in the 536 00:23:34,150 --> 00:23:36,860 presentation and in your handout show a 537 00:23:36,870 --> 00:23:39,960 similar sort of plot for the upper 538 00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,850 three projects for years in Milwaukee 539 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,630 and I won't go into as much detail on 540 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,200 these individual ones within your hand 541 00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:50,880 out for reference this one supported 542 00:23:50,890 --> 00:23:53,770 back , we'll just stop briefly . Again 543 00:23:53,770 --> 00:23:55,950 on garrison . Again , you can see a 544 00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:58,182 similar sort of thing that is on system 545 00:23:58,182 --> 00:24:01,510 storage . We started here . You 546 00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:04,520 basically Union flood control zone , uh 547 00:24:04,530 --> 00:24:06,752 elevation , read scores dropped quite a 548 00:24:06,752 --> 00:24:08,960 bit since then . Again , depending on 549 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,182 what kind of run off we get next year , 550 00:24:11,182 --> 00:24:13,516 they'll have a big impact on we're here . 551 00:24:13,516 --> 00:24:16,490 Some ends up next year . The other 552 00:24:16,490 --> 00:24:18,823 thing I like to point out on this slide , 553 00:24:18,823 --> 00:24:21,046 we talked about it a little bit more on 554 00:24:21,046 --> 00:24:22,879 the project purpose for fish and 555 00:24:22,879 --> 00:24:25,050 wildlife . He reservoir under this 556 00:24:25,060 --> 00:24:28,640 lower desks out scenario does stay 557 00:24:28,650 --> 00:24:31,950 essentially steady or slightly rising 558 00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,950 during this spring fish spawn period 559 00:24:36,340 --> 00:24:38,260 and all reference that in late 560 00:24:40,140 --> 00:24:42,450 and another slide here for a walk . 561 00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:47,060 Similar information . It's now move 562 00:24:47,060 --> 00:24:49,390 on to talk about the individual project 563 00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:52,590 purposes . Uh for a start with flood 564 00:24:52,590 --> 00:24:55,510 control , flood damage is prevented in 565 00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:59,450 2020 was $.3 billion 566 00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:01,673 Over the next few months will be 567 00:25:01,673 --> 00:25:03,896 working outside damage is prevented for 568 00:25:03,896 --> 00:25:07,100 2021 . And again , as he's on our 569 00:25:07,110 --> 00:25:09,400 earlier slide , we started the year 570 00:25:09,410 --> 00:25:11,930 with all of the previous years , which 571 00:25:11,930 --> 00:25:15,200 is 2020 floodwater was evacuated from 572 00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,520 the reservoir system . We started right 573 00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:19,620 where we wanted to be and again , we 574 00:25:19,630 --> 00:25:21,519 didn't really gain much storage . 575 00:25:21,519 --> 00:25:23,660 That's your beautiful runoff . So a 576 00:25:23,660 --> 00:25:27,400 storage peaked early March 23 at 56.3 577 00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,630 million acre feet . Just he's a small 578 00:25:29,630 --> 00:25:32,000 percentage of the foot total blood 579 00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:34,560 storage . Looking out into next year 580 00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,320 then in all scenarios that we've shown 581 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:39,431 start next year below the base of the 582 00:25:39,431 --> 00:25:41,600 annual flood controlled zone unless we 583 00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,040 have some additional storage available . 584 00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:46,250 And here you have his own help with 585 00:25:46,250 --> 00:25:49,060 foot control operations , it's still 586 00:25:49,060 --> 00:25:51,060 important to know that we can still 587 00:25:51,060 --> 00:25:53,116 have flooding downstream through the 588 00:25:53,116 --> 00:25:55,270 rainfall events downstream , 589 00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,370 particularly of the main part of the 590 00:25:58,380 --> 00:26:00,770 reservoir system . Below Gavin's point . 591 00:26:01,260 --> 00:26:03,700 That stupid that large uncontrolled 592 00:26:03,710 --> 00:26:06,250 area of the low gallons point and also 593 00:26:06,250 --> 00:26:09,350 the long travel times well gathers 594 00:26:09,350 --> 00:26:12,540 point , which can be several days down 595 00:26:12,540 --> 00:26:16,520 river . Next project 596 00:26:16,530 --> 00:26:19,060 purposes , hiding power here , hiding 597 00:26:19,070 --> 00:26:21,760 power is largely influenced by the 598 00:26:21,910 --> 00:26:24,021 runoff that goes through the system . 599 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,870 So you can see here during our last 600 00:26:26,870 --> 00:26:30,070 drought period from about 2000 and 2008 601 00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,850 uh , system generation was down the way 602 00:26:32,850 --> 00:26:35,280 a bit and then you can see during the 603 00:26:35,290 --> 00:26:38,530 weather recent years system hydro 604 00:26:38,530 --> 00:26:41,980 powers up With our forecast for this 605 00:26:41,980 --> 00:26:44,180 year . We're looking at about 8.9 606 00:26:44,190 --> 00:26:46,060 billion kilowatt hours of energy 607 00:26:46,070 --> 00:26:48,930 generation next year with a median 608 00:26:48,930 --> 00:26:51,940 runoff conditions , you'd expect 8.1 609 00:26:51,940 --> 00:26:54,510 billion kilowatt hours . Both of those 610 00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:57,940 uh , estimates are less than the long 611 00:26:57,940 --> 00:27:01,930 term average of about 9.5 mhm kilowatt 612 00:27:01,930 --> 00:27:05,680 hours . Moving on to 613 00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:09,120 navigation . We started the 2020 614 00:27:09,130 --> 00:27:11,700 navigation season with full service 615 00:27:11,700 --> 00:27:14,750 flows . We got to that july 1st storage 616 00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,900 check Indicating we need to implement 617 00:27:17,900 --> 00:27:20,011 some water conservation measures . So 618 00:27:20,011 --> 00:27:23,090 we reduce the service level of close 619 00:27:23,090 --> 00:27:25,560 support by 1500 cfs . 620 00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,710 Now looking out into 2020 that first 621 00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:33,620 storage takes on March 15 for median 622 00:27:33,620 --> 00:27:35,787 and the low runoff it looks like we'll 623 00:27:35,787 --> 00:27:37,650 be on the minimum service . Full 624 00:27:37,650 --> 00:27:40,290 support for navigation . With the Upper 625 00:27:40,290 --> 00:27:42,980 two runoff conditions , we do show a 626 00:27:42,990 --> 00:27:45,930 little bit higher . Yeah , Close 627 00:27:45,930 --> 00:27:48,190 support but it's roughly just about 628 00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,400 2000 . See if that's higher than 629 00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:53,880 minimum service And then looking out to 630 00:27:53,890 --> 00:27:55,980 the next storage jack , which needs 631 00:27:55,990 --> 00:27:59,820 July one of 2022 . Um , if we get 632 00:27:59,820 --> 00:28:01,800 those two weather conditions , the 633 00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:04,440 upper decks on the portal , we shall at 634 00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:07,320 least full service uh flow support for 635 00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:09,780 navigation . Both those scenarios show 636 00:28:09,780 --> 00:28:13,360 a 10 day extension irrigation season . 637 00:28:14,340 --> 00:28:16,950 If we get the median runoff condition , 638 00:28:16,950 --> 00:28:20,210 we show some improvement in close 639 00:28:20,210 --> 00:28:22,432 support for navigation , we can go from 640 00:28:22,432 --> 00:28:24,850 minimum service . Close support up to 641 00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:28,280 2400 Cfs , it'll lower full service . 642 00:28:29,540 --> 00:28:31,940 However , under the two lower scenarios , 643 00:28:31,950 --> 00:28:35,080 minimum service and shortened seasons 644 00:28:35,100 --> 00:28:37,560 for both those two lower runoff 645 00:28:37,570 --> 00:28:40,980 conditions . And in addition , as kevin 646 00:28:41,070 --> 00:28:43,240 sort of alluded to earlier , 647 00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:48,350 both these scenarios have shortenings 648 00:28:48,350 --> 00:28:50,572 to the navigation season , which we did 649 00:28:50,572 --> 00:28:52,517 not have this year . But the lower 650 00:28:52,517 --> 00:28:54,239 court trial shows a seven days 651 00:28:54,239 --> 00:28:56,406 shortening Lower this house shows that 652 00:28:56,406 --> 00:28:59,360 16 patients to navigation full support 653 00:29:02,370 --> 00:29:04,670 moving on to water supply of our 654 00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:07,350 quality , your nation and recreation . 655 00:29:07,940 --> 00:29:10,640 These four project purposes all require 656 00:29:10,650 --> 00:29:14,250 access to water . Uh , in 2021 , we 657 00:29:14,250 --> 00:29:16,920 started off the year with reservoirs in 658 00:29:16,930 --> 00:29:19,041 pretty good shape . So we didn't have 659 00:29:19,041 --> 00:29:21,263 any immediate impacts . But as the year 660 00:29:21,263 --> 00:29:23,486 progressed and the reservoir started to 661 00:29:23,486 --> 00:29:25,600 drop , did hear about impacts , for 662 00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:29,330 example , to recreation areas . Uh , in 663 00:29:29,330 --> 00:29:31,330 terms of like boat ramps and things 664 00:29:31,330 --> 00:29:33,510 like that , you can hear some issues 665 00:29:33,510 --> 00:29:35,510 with the irrigators . For example , 666 00:29:35,510 --> 00:29:39,320 below Garrison calls about irrigation 667 00:29:39,330 --> 00:29:43,080 human taste during the summer , kevin 668 00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:45,247 didn't talk about Gavin's point Winter 669 00:29:45,247 --> 00:29:48,980 releases 12,000 Cfs this coming winter , 670 00:29:48,980 --> 00:29:51,530 which could potentially be issue for 671 00:29:51,530 --> 00:29:53,970 some of the downstream water supply in 672 00:29:53,970 --> 00:29:57,150 cakes and again , looking at the next 673 00:29:57,150 --> 00:30:00,740 year , then really the access issues 674 00:30:00,740 --> 00:30:02,907 are very dependent on what kind of run 675 00:30:02,907 --> 00:30:05,018 off we get . You know . Again , if we 676 00:30:05,018 --> 00:30:07,240 get those weather conditions , probably 677 00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:09,407 some of these issues won't be for some 678 00:30:09,407 --> 00:30:11,740 of these concerns won't be as uh worked . 679 00:30:11,940 --> 00:30:13,773 But if we get those lower runoff 680 00:30:13,773 --> 00:30:16,850 conditions in some access and she's for 681 00:30:16,850 --> 00:30:18,961 things like are supplying the face in 682 00:30:18,961 --> 00:30:21,940 our creation area , right those . 683 00:30:23,340 --> 00:30:25,062 And then if we look out to the 684 00:30:25,062 --> 00:30:27,800 following winter in the winter of 2022 , 685 00:30:27,810 --> 00:30:31,320 going into 2023 under the medium-run 686 00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:33,431 off condition . Again , we would have 687 00:30:33,431 --> 00:30:35,487 low cabinets point winter releases , 688 00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:38,100 12,000 Cfs 689 00:30:40,740 --> 00:30:44,020 Reference fish and wildlife . Earlier 690 00:30:44,310 --> 00:30:47,230 our goal is to have steadily rising 691 00:30:47,230 --> 00:30:49,460 reservoir levels at the Upper three 692 00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:52,610 projects during the spring forage fish 693 00:30:52,610 --> 00:30:55,980 pond this year . If we don't have 694 00:30:55,990 --> 00:30:57,910 sufficient Roth to keep all three 695 00:30:57,910 --> 00:30:59,743 rising . And then we would favor 696 00:30:59,743 --> 00:31:02,220 garrison . And what I mean by favor is 697 00:31:02,220 --> 00:31:04,470 we would adjust releases that work back 698 00:31:04,470 --> 00:31:07,570 and garrison . You try to keep fear 699 00:31:07,570 --> 00:31:10,970 surprise and during that period . Yeah , 700 00:31:10,970 --> 00:31:14,130 that's in context with other project 701 00:31:14,140 --> 00:31:16,550 purposes like irrigation quarterback 702 00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:21,170 hear something also . Oh , we had 703 00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:24,550 concerns about words during , 704 00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:30,440 we'll continue to minimize periods of 705 00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:32,384 zero release import Randall to the 706 00:31:32,384 --> 00:31:34,496 extent that we can during the nesting 707 00:31:34,496 --> 00:31:38,360 season for the birds . This does 708 00:31:38,370 --> 00:31:41,200 become a little bit more of a challenge 709 00:31:41,210 --> 00:31:43,210 when we get to minimum service type 710 00:31:43,210 --> 00:31:45,154 releases because the overall daily 711 00:31:45,154 --> 00:31:47,620 averages are lower than also during 712 00:31:47,630 --> 00:31:49,970 periods of flood risk reduction 713 00:31:49,970 --> 00:31:52,192 measures . Sometimes we have to quickly 714 00:31:52,192 --> 00:31:55,080 cut releases from the projects . It 715 00:31:55,090 --> 00:31:57,060 just requires zero 716 00:31:58,940 --> 00:32:00,910 and then we'll continue to monitor 717 00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:04,740 Goldwater habitat that blues licks 718 00:32:04,740 --> 00:32:07,930 hypochondria . During a previous job , 719 00:32:07,930 --> 00:32:10,152 we did have some issues with cold water 720 00:32:10,152 --> 00:32:12,520 habitat . So we'll monitor that closely 721 00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,353 as we get into next year again , 722 00:32:15,340 --> 00:32:17,507 depends on what kind of wrong . That's 723 00:32:17,507 --> 00:32:21,400 nice . They 724 00:32:21,410 --> 00:32:24,180 last talked about the regulations would 725 00:32:24,180 --> 00:32:26,640 threaten endangered species . First , 726 00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,680 the piping plumber in the least tern uh 727 00:32:29,690 --> 00:32:32,020 in terms of this year , uh would 728 00:32:32,020 --> 00:32:34,242 mention that the lease term was removed 729 00:32:34,242 --> 00:32:36,380 from the endangered species list is 730 00:32:36,380 --> 00:32:39,160 here uh will continue to do an adult 731 00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:41,327 census for the terms , but there won't 732 00:32:41,327 --> 00:32:43,880 be any additional monitoring of the 733 00:32:43,890 --> 00:32:46,270 turns that goes out that go on during 734 00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:50,100 nesting season . In terms of the piping 735 00:32:50,110 --> 00:32:53,730 plumbers this year , the falling 736 00:32:53,730 --> 00:32:57,050 reservoir levels did have 737 00:32:57,060 --> 00:32:59,680 impact in terms of more shoreline 738 00:32:59,690 --> 00:33:02,610 habitat was available . That increased 739 00:33:02,620 --> 00:33:04,564 the number of fledglings that were 740 00:33:04,564 --> 00:33:07,070 produced and that had a cat ability 741 00:33:07,070 --> 00:33:09,360 ability and also increased the adult 742 00:33:09,390 --> 00:33:12,870 numbers . Looking out next 743 00:33:12,870 --> 00:33:15,050 year , we have a couple of operations 744 00:33:15,060 --> 00:33:18,770 that we do during the spring for uh 745 00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:21,496 what would be just the fighting over 746 00:33:21,496 --> 00:33:23,520 next year . Gavin's point releases 747 00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:25,800 steady release floating target . What 748 00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:27,640 we mean by that is uh , at the 749 00:33:27,650 --> 00:33:29,706 beginning of the nesting season , we 750 00:33:29,706 --> 00:33:31,928 would set a steady release from Gavin's 751 00:33:31,928 --> 00:33:34,070 point . That would help us meet the 752 00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:37,090 targets down the stream during that 753 00:33:37,090 --> 00:33:39,146 initial part of the nesting season , 754 00:33:39,740 --> 00:33:41,740 keep the birds nesting up either in 755 00:33:41,740 --> 00:33:45,080 that first phase of nesting and then if 756 00:33:45,090 --> 00:33:46,812 the condition's dry up like we 757 00:33:46,812 --> 00:33:49,220 typically do in the later part of the 758 00:33:49,220 --> 00:33:51,331 summer , then we would increase flows 759 00:33:51,331 --> 00:33:53,553 from Gavin's point or float to target . 760 00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:57,080 We also have done in the past baby 761 00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,830 release cycling . Uh that will be one 762 00:33:59,830 --> 00:34:02,060 day up at the state of release level 763 00:34:02,070 --> 00:34:04,070 followed by one or two days down in 764 00:34:04,070 --> 00:34:06,990 some lower level . And that can be used 765 00:34:06,990 --> 00:34:09,190 as a water conservation measure . And 766 00:34:09,190 --> 00:34:11,450 it's also been used as the flood risk 767 00:34:11,460 --> 00:34:15,210 reduction . We haven't really done 768 00:34:15,220 --> 00:34:17,630 specifically these operations the last 769 00:34:17,630 --> 00:34:19,870 few years , a couple of years , it was 770 00:34:19,870 --> 00:34:21,981 just due to the high runoff . We were 771 00:34:21,981 --> 00:34:25,260 evacuating water last year we had an 772 00:34:25,270 --> 00:34:29,230 initial requirement downstream meet 773 00:34:29,240 --> 00:34:31,760 the targets that was somewhat tired , 774 00:34:32,140 --> 00:34:35,010 steady release . So just have to see 775 00:34:35,010 --> 00:34:37,320 how it plays out . These will be based 776 00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:39,960 on testing every day , 777 00:34:41,140 --> 00:34:44,090 habitat availability next year and also 778 00:34:44,100 --> 00:34:47,270 hydrologic conditions . Yeah , we'll 779 00:34:47,270 --> 00:34:49,260 continue to do intraday thinking 780 00:34:49,270 --> 00:34:51,492 patterns of garrison and four Randall . 781 00:34:51,492 --> 00:34:53,890 These intraday or our repeating 782 00:34:53,900 --> 00:34:56,120 patterns give us some hydropower 783 00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:58,640 benefits . But they also give us 784 00:34:58,650 --> 00:35:02,470 consistent river stages . The sandbars 785 00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:04,690 below hears in court , Randall where 786 00:35:04,690 --> 00:35:08,400 the I think what was nesting And then 787 00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:10,233 we'll continue to do measures to 788 00:35:10,240 --> 00:35:13,830 minimize state . And then the last 789 00:35:13,830 --> 00:35:15,719 thing I want to talk about is the 790 00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:17,774 regulation for the palace sturgeon . 791 00:35:17,774 --> 00:35:21,570 The Fort peck dam test release final 792 00:35:21,580 --> 00:35:24,720 E . S . Was issued in september the 793 00:35:24,730 --> 00:35:27,260 record of decision is not signed yet 794 00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,310 comment period for that final in the 795 00:35:30,310 --> 00:35:33,360 eye . As close as they actually day 796 00:35:34,170 --> 00:35:36,281 in the record of decision will follow 797 00:35:36,281 --> 00:35:38,470 at some point faster . 798 00:35:39,340 --> 00:35:41,970 The identifies and compares 799 00:35:41,970 --> 00:35:44,590 alternatives . Alternative test 800 00:35:44,590 --> 00:35:47,050 releases from Fort peck and purpose of 801 00:35:47,050 --> 00:35:49,460 the test closes to evaluate the 802 00:35:49,470 --> 00:35:51,359 potential for achieving pallets , 803 00:35:51,359 --> 00:35:53,740 sturgeon , spawning and recruitment on 804 00:35:53,740 --> 00:35:56,450 the upper Missouri River . At this 805 00:35:56,450 --> 00:35:58,617 point according to the criteria that's 806 00:35:58,617 --> 00:36:02,380 in the for those test flows Testicles 807 00:36:02,380 --> 00:36:04,960 are unlikely in 2020 . That's when he 808 00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:08,550 reviews the current low reservoir while 809 00:36:09,330 --> 00:36:13,280 and also well the elevation is 810 00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:15,113 likely to be below the Fort peck 811 00:36:15,113 --> 00:36:18,810 spillway chris step . Okay so 812 00:36:19,730 --> 00:36:23,360 yes So in summary 813 00:36:23,370 --> 00:36:25,890 again , water conservation , water 814 00:36:25,890 --> 00:36:28,001 conservation measures were enacted on 815 00:36:28,001 --> 00:36:30,870 July one . We start next year with all 816 00:36:30,870 --> 00:36:32,870 of the flood storage available plus 817 00:36:32,870 --> 00:36:35,240 some additional flood storage . In 818 00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:38,690 theory over zone will closely monitor 819 00:36:38,690 --> 00:36:41,900 the mountain and snow back this winter 820 00:36:41,990 --> 00:36:44,340 and also the river conditions below the 821 00:36:44,340 --> 00:36:46,660 rest of our system . And also between 822 00:36:47,030 --> 00:36:50,970 principal words winter And 823 00:36:50,970 --> 00:36:52,970 then the service level for the 2020 824 00:36:52,970 --> 00:36:55,470 navigation season will likely be a low 825 00:36:55,470 --> 00:36:57,692 full service . At this point it kind of 826 00:36:57,692 --> 00:37:00,390 looks like it's minimum service can 827 00:37:00,390 --> 00:37:01,340 start this season