News Releases

2016 RUNOFF FORECAST BELOW NORMAL; SPRING MEETINGS TO BE HELD APRIL 12–14

Published March 3, 2016
The Missouri River Water Management office releases a report at the beginning of each month to the public documenting the monthly river forecast and release schedule. The Missouri River Water Management Division is part of the Northwestern Division of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and is located in Omaha, Nebraska.

The Missouri River Water Management office releases a report at the beginning of each month to the public documenting the monthly river forecast and release schedule. The Missouri River Water Management Division is part of the Northwestern Division of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and is located in Omaha, Nebraska.

OMAHA, Neb. – Runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, was 1.9 million acre feet (MAF) during February, 170 percent of normal. “Above normal temperatures in the upper Missouri River basin melted virtually all of the plains snowpack and some low elevation mountain snowpack,” said Jody Farhat, chief of the Missouri River Basin Water Management Division. “Runoff that would normally occur in March and April occurred earlier this year. Additionally, warm temperatures released some of the water that had been locked-up in river ice earlier in the winter, contributing to higher than average runoff.”

The 2016 runoff forecast in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, is 21.6 MAF, 85 percent of normal. The March forecast is about 1.6 MAF less than the February runoff forecast. “The reduction in forecasted runoff is a result of below normal mountain snowpack above Fort Peck and Garrison. The remainder of the plains snowpack is light and patchy,” said Farhat. The total volume of water stored in the Missouri River Mainstem Reservoir System is currently 56.8 MAF, occupying 0.7 MAF of the 16.3 MAF flood control zone. “System storage reached the base of the annual flood control zone in late January, fully evacuating all the 2015 stored flood waters. The 2016 runoff season started in late January with all system flood control storage available,” said Farhat.

As of Feb. 29, the mountain snowpack was 89 percent of average in the reach above Fort Peck and 75 percent of average in the reach from Fort Peck to Garrison. Normally about 80 percent of the total mountain snowpack accumulation has occurred by Mar. 1. Mountain snowpack normally peaks in mid- April. 

View the mountain snowpack graphic at http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/snow.pdf

Beginning in mid-March, releases from Gavins Point Dam will be adjusted to provide flow support for navigation. Based on the March 15 system storage check, full-service navigation flow support will be provided for the first half of the Missouri River navigation season. Full-service navigation flow support is generally sufficient to provide a 9-feet-deep by 300-feet-wide channel. Flow support for the second half of the navigation season and the season length will be determined based on the July 1 system storage check. The navigation season opening dates are as follows:

March 23 – Sioux City, Iowa

March 25 – Omaha, Neb.

March 26 – Nebraska City, Neb.

March 28 – Kansas City, Mo.

April 1 – Mouth near St. Louis, Mo.

The Corps will continue to monitor basin conditions, mountain snow and plains snow accumulation, and fine tune the regulation of the reservoir system based on the most up-to-date information.

Spring Public Meetings

Five public meetings will be conducted throughout the basin April 12-14. The purpose of these meetings is to update the region on current hydrologic conditions and the planned operation of the reservoir system. Meeting times and locations are listed below.

Tuesday, April 12 – Smithville, Mo.

Start time:  11 a.m.

Jerry Litton Visitor Center

16311 DD Hwy

Tuesday, April 12 – Nebraska City, Iowa

Start time:  5 p.m.

Lewis and Clark Missouri River Visitor Center

100 Valmont Drive

Wednesday, April 13 – Fort Peck, Mont.

Start time:  11 a.m.

Fort Peck Interpretative Center

Lower Yellowstone Road

Wednesday, April 13 - Bismarck, N.D.

Start time:  6 p.m.

Bismarck Civic Center

315 South 5th Street

Thursday, April 14 – Pierre, S.D.

Start time:  11 a.m.

Capitol Lake Visitor Center

500 E Capitol Ave.

Monthly water management conference calls

The Corps will host its third conference call of 2016 on Friday, Mar. 4 at 1:00 pm CST to inform basin stakeholders on current weather and runoff forecasts and the planned operation of the reservoir system in the coming months. Presentation materials will be available via webinar. The call is intended for Congressional delegations; Tribes; state, county and local government officials; and the media. It will be recorded in its entirety and made available on the Defense Video and Imagery Distribution System at www.dvidshub.net/unit/OmahaUSACE.

Reservoir Forecasts

Gavins Point Dam releases averaged 17,000 cfs in February. Releases were reduced from 17,000 cfs to 14,000 cfs on Mar. 3. Releases will remain at that rate until mid-March when they will be adjusted to provide flow support for the navigation season. The reservoir behind Gavins Point Dam ended February at elevation 1206.2 feet. The reservoir will remain near elevation 1206.0 feet during March. Fort Randall Dam releases averaged 13,900 cfs in February. Releases will be adjusted in mid-March corresponding to changes in Gavins Point releases, and to maintain the desired elevation at Gavins Point Dam. The reservoir ended February at elevation 1351.2 feet, up 5.8 feet during the month. The reservoir is expected to reach elevation 1355 feet in late March. Big Bend Dam releases averaged 16,900 cfs during the month of February. Releases are expected to average 18,400 cfs this month. The reservoir will remain near its normal elevation of 1420.0 feet during March. Oahe Dam releases averaged 17,600 cfs during the month of February. Releases are expected to average 17,700 cfs this month. The reservoir ended February at elevation 1608.6 feet, up 1.1 feet during the month. The reservoir level is expected to rise about 1 foot in March.

Garrison Dam releases were reduced from 20,000 cfs to 18,000 cfs during February averaging 19,100 cfs for the month. Releases were reduced to 16,000 cfs in early March and will remain at that rate through the month. Garrison ended February at elevation 1838.1 feet, down 0.7 foot from the end of January. The reservoir is expected to remain near its current elevation during March. Fort Peck Dam releases averaged 6,200 cfs in February. Releases are expected to remain at 6,000 cfs during March. The reservoir rose 0.3 foot during February, ending the month at elevation 2234.1 feet. The reservoir level is forecast to rise slightly during March. The forecast reservoir releases and elevations discussed above are not definitive. Additional precipitation, lack of precipitation or other circumstances could cause adjustments to the reservoir release rates.

The six mainstem power plants generated 565 million kilowatt hours of electricity in February. Typical energy generation for the month of February is 621 million kWh. The power plants are projected to generate 9.1 billion kWh of electricity this year, compared to the normal of 10 billion kWh. To view the detailed three-week release forecast for the mainstem dams, go to: http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/twregfcast.pdf    

Missouri River Mainstem Reservoir Data

.

 

Pool Elevation

(feet above mean sea level)

Water in Storage - 1,000 acre-feet

 

On February 29

Change in February

On February 29

% of 1967-2015 Average

Change in February

Fort Peck

2234.1

+0.3

14,800

107

+47

Garrison

1838.1

-0.7

17,914

109

-238

Oahe

1608.6

+1.1

19,013

111

+352

Big Bend

1420.7

-0.4

1,672

98

-24

Fort Randall

1351.2

+5.8

3,092

91

+425

Gavins Point

1206.2

+0.2

334

90

+6

 

 

 Total

56,822

107

-673

 

Water releases and energy generation for January

 

 

Average Release in 1,000 cfs

Releases in 1,000 acre-feet

Generation in Million kWh

Fort Peck

6.2

355

56

Garrison

19.1

1,099

169

Oahe

17.6

1,015

151

Big Bend

16.9

971

61

Fort Randall

13.9

800

83

Gavins Point

17.0

979

45

 

 

Total

565

 

 

 

- 30 -


Contact
Michael Coffey
503-808-3722
michael.a.coffey@usace.army.mil

Release no. 20160303-001