News Releases

Gavins Point Dam releases to be reduced to winter release rate in late November

Missouri River Water Management Division
Published Nov. 4, 2022
Graphich showing the Missouri River basin and the location of the six U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams on the main stem of the Missouri River.

Each month, from January through the end of the runoff season, Missouri River water managers and weather forecasters report the conditions of the Missouri River Basin.

2 tables providing the following data
MISSOURI RIVER MAINSTEM RESERVOIR DATA
 	Pool Elevation
(feet above mean sea level) 	 
 	On October 31	Change in October	On October 31	% of 1967-2021 Average	Change in October
Fort Peck	2219.9	+0.2	12,057	83	+50
Garrison	1833.3	-0.7	16,508	93	-191
Oahe	1590.9	-2.1	14,053	79	-545
Big Bend	1420.9	+0.8	1,683	99	+37
Fort Randall	1343.1	-10.3	2,516	75	-755
Gavins Point	1208.0	+0.5	375	96	+12
 	 	Total	47,192	85	-1,392


WATER RELEASES AND ENERGY GENERATION FOR OCTOBER
 	Average Release in 1,000 cfs	Releases in 1,000 acre-feet	Generation in Million kWh
Fort Peck	4.1	254	39
Garrison	14.0	861	129
Oahe	21.0	1,292	183
Big Bend	20.0	1,228	69
Fort Randall	30.0	1,842	181
Gavins Point	31.8	1,952	88
 		Total	689

MISSOURI RIVER MAINSTEM RESERVOIR DATA Pool Elevation (feet above mean sea level) On October 31 Change in October On October 31 % of 1967-2021 Average Change in October Fort Peck 2219.9 +0.2 12,057 83 +50 Garrison 1833.3 -0.7 16,508 93 -191 Oahe 1590.9 -2.1 14,053 79 -545 Big Bend 1420.9 +0.8 1,683 99 +37 Fort Randall 1343.1 -10.3 2,516 75 -755 Gavins Point 1208.0 +0.5 375 96 +12 Total 47,192 85 -1,392 WATER RELEASES AND ENERGY GENERATION FOR OCTOBER Average Release in 1,000 cfs Releases in 1,000 acre-feet Generation in Million kWh Fort Peck 4.1 254 39 Garrison 14.0 861 129 Oahe 21.0 1,292 183 Big Bend 20.0 1,228 69 Fort Randall 30.0 1,842 181 Gavins Point 31.8 1,952 88 Total 689

Six public meetings were held during the week of Oct. 24 to present current hydrologic conditions and the planned operation of the Missouri River mainstem reservoir system for the remainder of 2022.

The public meetings were held in six locations in the Missouri River basin and a virtual public meeting was held Nov. 3. The meetings included draft plans for regulating the system in 2023.

“We will continue to make releases from Gavins Point Dam to provide flow support at a level 500 cubic feet per second above minimum service, through the end of the navigation flow support season,” said John Remus, chief of the USACE, Missouri River Basin Water Management Division.

“The flow support season will end three days early, on Nov. 28, at the mouth of the Missouri River.”

Gavins Point releases are currently 30,000 cfs. Release reductions to the winter rate of 12,000 cfs are scheduled to begin around November 19. Releases will be gradually reduced by 3,000 cfs each day until reaching a rate of 15,000 cfs. Releases will then be paused before stepping down 1,000 cfs every five days to the winter release. Fort Randall releases will be stepped down in a similar manner, approximately one day prior to the Gavins Point reductions.

“Winter releases from Gavins Point Dam for the 2022-2023 winter will be similar to last winter,” said Remus.  “Intake operators in the lower river should be taking measures to assure access they can maintain access to the water.”

Despite recent rainfall events during October in various parts of the upper Basin, runoff was below normal. October runoff was 0.7 million-acre-feet above Gavins Point Dam, which is 73% of normal. Approximately 90% of the Missouri River basin is experiencing some form of abnormally dry conditions or drought according to the National Drought Mitigation Center. The seasonal drought outlook, which extends through the end of January, shows drought conditions persisting and expanding across most of the upper Basin. The 2022 calendar year runoff forecast for the upper Basin, updated on Nov. 1, is 19.4 MAF, 76% of average.

Reservoir studies indicate System storage will be well below normal at the start of the 2023 runoff season. System storage is forecast to be about 46.5 MAF, more than 9 MAF into the System’s Carryover and Multiple Use Zone. This means that the Fort Peck, Garrison, and Oahe reservoirs are expected to be approximately 12 to 15 feet below the base of their respective flood control zones on March 1.

Navigation

As previously announced, the July 1 System storage check indicated a flow support season at a level 500 cfs above minimum service and ending on November 28 at the mouth of the Missouri River. Flow support is expected to end on the dates indicated below:

Location                                             End Date 
Sioux City, Iowa                                  November 19
Omaha, Nebraska                              November 21
Nebraska City, Nebraska                   November 22
Kansas City, Missouri                         November 24
Mouth near St. Louis, Missouri           November 28

Fall Public Meetings

A public meeting was conducted by webinar on Nov. 3. Recordings of these meetings and meeting handouts will be posted at the following link when it becomes available: https://www.nwd.usace.army.mil/MRWM/Public-Meetings/

Reservoir Forecasts:

  • Gavins Point Dam
    • Average releases past month – 31,800 cfs
    • Current release rate – 30,000 cfs (as of November 1)
    • Forecast average release rate – 25,700 cfs (November)
    • End-of-October reservoir level – 1208.0 feet
    • Forecast end-of-November reservoir level – 1207.5 feet
    • Notes: Releases will be adjusted as necessary to meet all downstream navigation targets until the end of the navigation flow support season. The Gavins Point release will be reduced to 15,000 cfs beginning around November 19 at a rate of 3,000 cfs per day, then at a rate of 1,000 cfs every 5 days to the winter release rate of 12,000 cfs.
       
  • Fort Randall Dam
    • Average releases past month – 29,900 cfs
    • End-of-October reservoir level – 1343.1 feet
    • Forecast end-of-November reservoir level – 1337.3 feet
    • Notes: Releases will be stepped down near the end of November, approximately one day prior to the Gavins Point reductions as necessary to maintain the desired reservoir elevation at Gavins Point. The Fort Randall pool is normally drawn down to 1337.5 feet in the fall to provide space for winter hydropower generation at Oahe and Big Bend. The annual drawdown will continue in November.
       
  • Big Bend Dam
    • Average releases past month – 20,000 cfs
    • Forecast average release rate – 17,200 cfs
    • Forecast reservoir level – 1420.6 feet
       
  • Oahe Dam
    • Average releases past month – 21,000 cfs
    • Forecast average release rate – 17,000 cfs
    • End-of-October reservoir level – 1590.9 feet
    • Forecast end-of-November reservoir level – 1590.1 feet
       
  • Garrison Dam
    • Average releases past month – 14,000 cfs
    • Current release rate – 15,000 cfs
    • Forecast average release rate – 15,000 cfs
    • End-of-October reservoir level – 1833.3 feet
    • Forecast end-of-November reservoir level – 1832.2 feet
       
  • Fort Peck Dam
    • Average releases past month – 4,100 cfs
    • Current release rate – 4,000 cfs
    • Forecast average release rate – 4,000 cfs
    • End-of-October reservoir level – 2219.9 feet
    • Forecast end-of-November reservoir level – 2220.1 feet

The forecast reservoir releases and elevations discussed above are not definitive. Additional precipitation, lack of precipitation or other circumstances could cause adjustments to the reservoir release rates.

Hydropower:

The six mainstem power plants generated 689 million kWh of electricity in October. Typical energy generation for October is 817 million kWh. The power plants are projected to generate 7.5 billion kWh of electricity this year, compared to the long-term average of 9.4 billion kWh.

To view the detailed three-week release forecast for the mainstem dams, go to http://go.usa.gov/xVgWr.

 


Contact
Eileen Williamson
402-996-3802
eileen.l.williamson@usace.army.mil

Release no. 22-048